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In 2026 If the number of measles in 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the United States will record more than 750 measles cases in 2026. On Kalshi, the leading market for this question is trading at 100 cents, implying a 100% probability. This price indicates traders see exceeding this case threshold as a virtual guarantee, with no meaningful market doubt remaining.
Two primary factors explain this extreme market confidence. First, the epidemiological trend is sharply upward. The U.S. has already recorded over 750 measles cases in 2024, a significant surge driven by outbreaks linked to declining childhood vaccination rates and international travel. This establishes a new, higher baseline of community transmission risk that is unlikely to reverse quickly. Second, public health agencies like the CDC have consistently warned that the growing number of unvaccinated children, fueled by vaccine hesitancy, creates larger susceptible populations. This makes localized outbreaks more frequent and severe, a structural issue that will persist into 2026.
Given the 100% price, the market sees almost no plausible path for cases to stay below 750. The only theoretical scenarios that could alter this outlook would require a massive, immediate public health intervention, such as a federally mandated school vaccination campaign, which is politically improbable. A significant, rapid increase in measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake in 2025 could potentially reduce the susceptible pool, but the market is clearly betting that behavioral and demographic trends are too entrenched. Traders will instead focus on more specific markets predicting total case ranges, as the binary threshold of 750 cases is considered decisively breached.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the projected number of measles cases globally in the year 2026. Measles is a highly contagious viral disease that was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000 and in the Americas in 2016, but has seen significant resurgences worldwide due to declining vaccination coverage. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the total reported cases exceed a predetermined threshold, X, with an early closure mechanism triggered by official confirmation of that threshold being met. Interest in this topic stems from its role as a key public health indicator, reflecting the success or failure of global immunization programs and the impact of vaccine hesitancy. Recent years have seen alarming increases in measles outbreaks, reversing decades of progress and raising concerns about health system preparedness and the broader implications for child mortality and disease control efforts.
Measles was a nearly universal childhood infection prior to the licensure of the first vaccine in 1963. Global deaths, which numbered approximately 2.6 million annually in the early 1980s, fell dramatically due to expanded immunization. A major historical precedent was the 2000 declaration of measles elimination in the United States, followed by a similar declaration for the Americas in 2016, proving the disease could be controlled regionally. However, a significant setback began around 2016. Global cases, which had fallen to a historic low of 132,490 in 2016, surged to over 869,000 in 2019, the highest number in 23 years. This resurgence was largely attributed to gaps in vaccination coverage, with the COVID-19 pandemic further disrupting routine immunization services for millions of children from 2020 onward, creating a larger pool of susceptible individuals.
The number of measles cases in 2026 is a critical barometer of global health security. High case numbers signal failures in fundamental public health infrastructure, directly leading to preventable child deaths and severe complications like pneumonia, encephalitis, and blindness. Economically, outbreaks strain healthcare systems and incur significant costs for outbreak response, diverting resources from other health priorities. Politically and socially, measles incidence is inextricably linked to vaccine confidence. Rising cases often correlate with and exacerbate vaccine hesitancy, undermining trust in scientific institutions and threatening the control of other vaccine-preventable diseases. The trajectory of measles serves as an early warning for potential resurgences of more dangerous pathogens, making its surveillance a matter of broad societal concern.
As of late 2024, measles transmission remains active in multiple world regions. The WHO European Region reported over 42,000 cases in the first quarter of 2024 alone, a sharp increase from the same period in 2023. In the United States, the CDC has issued alerts regarding multiple outbreaks linked to unvaccinated travelers and under-vaccinated communities. Global health agencies are actively campaigning to recover lost ground in routine immunization, but significant challenges remain, including pandemic-related backlogs, conflict, and misinformation. The case count for 2024 is projected to be substantially higher than in 2023, creating momentum that will influence the baseline for 2026.
Preliminary WHO data indicates there were over 300,000 reported measles cases globally in 2023, a more than 50% increase from the approximately 171,000 cases reported in 2022. This figure is considered a significant undercount of the true burden.
As of 2024, countries experiencing large outbreaks include Yemen, India, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation. In the WHO European Region, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Romania have reported very high incidence rates.
For the 2022-2023 school year, the CDC reported that national MMR vaccination coverage among kindergarteners was approximately 93%, below the 95% herd immunity threshold. Some states and local communities have rates far lower, creating pockets of vulnerability.
Measles is one of the most contagious viruses known. It spreads through the air via respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes. The virus can remain infectious in the air and on surfaces for up to two hours.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will there be more than 750 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 100% |
Will there be more than 500 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 100% |
Will there be more than 1000 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 98% |
Will there be more than 1250 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 96% |
Will there be more than 1500 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 95% |
Will there be more than 1750 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 90% |
Will there be more than 2000 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 88% |
Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 63% |
Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 47% |
Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 38% |
Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026? | Kalshi | 28% |
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