GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Measles cases in 2026?

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Measles cases in 2026?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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5 markets tracked

Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?	Kalshi	86%
Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?	Kalshi	31%
Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

In 2026 If the number of measles in 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Measles cases in 2026?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the number of measles in 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of measles in 2026 is above 3000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Measles cases in 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

If the number of measles in 2026 is above 3000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?

If the number of measles in 2026 is above 4000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

If the number of measles in 2026 is above 6000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?

If the number of measles in 2026 is above 8000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?

If the number of measles in 2026 is above 10000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/1vI5HE" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Measles cases in 2026?"></iframe>

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Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

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Events (1)

Measles cases in 2026?

Markets (5)

Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?

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Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

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Measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?

Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?

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