$81.10K
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$81.10K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled January 16. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled January 16 by January 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will
The prediction market is pricing in near-certainty that "End of Beginning" by Djo will be the #1 song on Spotify for the week labeled January 16. With shares trading at 99¢, this reflects an implied probability of 99%. In practical terms, the market sees this outcome as virtually assured, leaving almost no room for an alternative result. This extreme confidence is notable given the typically volatile nature of music streaming charts.
Two primary factors explain this pricing. First, "End of Beginning" has demonstrated unprecedented chart longevity. Originally released in 2022, the track experienced a massive viral resurgence on TikTok in late 2025, driving sustained streaming dominance. It has held the global Spotify #1 position for the preceding eight consecutive weeks, establishing a powerful incumbent advantage. Second, the current streaming data for the tracking week (Friday, January 9 to Thursday, January 15) shows the song maintaining a significant lead, with reported daily streams consistently 20-30% higher than its nearest competitor. This real-time data, often tracked by chart analysts, has solidified the consensus view that no last-minute surge from another release is feasible.
Given the 99% probability, the only scenario that could invalidate the market consensus would be a catastrophic data error or an unprecedented, unreported streaming event. The market resolves based on Spotify's official weekly chart, typically released on the Friday of the resolution date. If Spotify were to unexpectedly delay or alter its chart methodology for this specific week, it could introduce resolution uncertainty. However, with the tracking period already complete and public data indicating a clear lead, such administrative interventions are considered highly improbable. The market's thin liquidity, with only $80,000 in volume spread across related markets, also indicates that this specific question is viewed as a foregone conclusion, with no meaningful capital contesting the outcome.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on identifying the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled January 16. Spotify, the world's largest audio streaming subscription service, calculates its weekly 'Top Songs - Global' playlist based on raw streaming data from the previous Friday through Thursday. The playlist is updated every Friday to reflect the most recent week of listener activity. This specific market resolves to the song that achieves the highest number of streams during that precise seven-day tracking period, offering a real-time snapshot of global musical consumption. The outcome is a direct measure of a song's immediate, worldwide popularity and cultural penetration, distinct from sales-based charts like the Billboard Hot 100. Interest in this market stems from its function as a leading indicator of musical trends, artist momentum, and the commercial power of streaming. It attracts attention from music industry analysts, fans, and investors who track the volatile dynamics of pop culture. The result for any given week, including January 16, can be influenced by new album releases, viral moments on social media platforms like TikTok, major music video premieres, or strategic playlist placements by Spotify itself. The market's resolution is binary and objective, based solely on Spotify's published data, making it a clear metric for predictive analysis.
The concept of a publicly available, weekly global streaming chart is a relatively recent development in music history, enabled by the rise of digital streaming platforms. Spotify launched its official, public-facing 'Charts' website in 2017, providing transparent data on the most-streamed songs and artists globally and by country. This created a new, real-time standard for measuring popularity, contrasting with traditional charts that blended sales, radio airplay, and later, streaming. The dominance of streaming became unequivocal in the late 2010s. A key historical precedent was the sustained run of Ed Sheeran's 'Shape of You' in 2017, which held the global number one on Spotify for weeks, demonstrating how streaming could create chart juggernauts. The pattern continued with record-breaking streaks from artists like Drake, whose 'In My Feelings' in 2018 and 'God's Plan' earlier that year dominated the platform. More recently, the integration of viral trends from TikTok has become a major historical driver, with songs like Fleetwood Mac's 'Dreams' (2020) and Kate Bush's 'Running Up That Hill' (2022) experiencing resurgences to top the global chart decades after their original release, a phenomenon nearly impossible in the pre-streaming era. The week labeled January 16 sits within this ongoing historical arc where streaming data is the definitive pop culture pulse.
The identity of Spotify's weekly global number one song is a significant economic and cultural indicator. Economically, it translates directly to substantial royalty payments for rights holders and can trigger lucrative contractual bonuses for artists. It also serves as powerful market validation, influencing investment in an artist's future projects, negotiating power for sync licensing in films and advertisements, and headline placement for major music festivals. The chart is closely monitored by the entire music industry as a barometer of what resonates with a global audience. Culturally, the top spot reflects and often accelerates broader social trends. A song's ascent can be tied to a viral dance, a social movement, or its use in a popular television series, making the chart a mirror of contemporary digital life. It shapes listening habits worldwide through playlist placement and social media discussion, creating a shared, albeit fragmented, musical experience. For fans and observers, it provides a weekly snapshot of the global zeitgeist as expressed through music, highlighting which artists and messages are cutting through the noise of the digital age.
As of late 2024 and heading into 2025, the competition for the weekly global number one on Spotify remains intensely competitive, often featuring major releases from pop, hip-hop, and Latin music superstars. The chart has recently been dominated by artists like Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, Drake, and The Weeknd, whose album release cycles reliably produce number one singles. The influence of TikTok as a song discovery engine continues to be a major factor, with viral audio clips frequently propelling tracks into the top tier of streaming. Spotify's own algorithmic and editorial playlists, particularly 'Today's Top Hits,' remain a critical gateway for achieving the streams necessary for the top position. The week of January 16 will be determined by which artist can best mobilize their fanbase and capitalize on these promotional channels during that specific timeframe.
Spotify counts the total number of streams for each song from Friday 00:00 UTC to Thursday 23:59 UTC. A stream is counted when a user intentionally plays a track for more than 30 seconds. The song with the highest number of valid streams during that period is ranked number one on the global chart updated the following Friday.
Spotify charts are based purely on streaming data from its platform. The Billboard Hot 100, the premier US chart, uses a multi-metric formula that includes radio airplay audience impressions, digital song sales, and streaming data from multiple services including Spotify, Apple Music, and others.
Yes. While typically driven by new releases, older songs can surge to number one due to viral moments on social media, feature in popular TV shows or films, or major cultural events. Examples include Kate Bush's 'Running Up That Hill' in 2022 after its use in Stranger Things.
The official chart is published every Friday on the Spotify Charts website (charts.spotify.com) under the 'Top Songs' category with the 'Global' region selected. It lists the top 200 songs based on the previous week's streaming data.
Absolutely. Placement on Spotify's major editorial playlists, especially 'Today's Top Hits,' which has tens of millions of followers, generates a huge volume of streams. This exposure is often essential for a song to accumulate the streams required to compete for the top position in its first week.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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