Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

Name: Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?
End: 2026-11-12T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.98K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

Vol

$18.98K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	Poly	59%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by October 30, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by October 30, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 240M by October 30, 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$18.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before October 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before October 30, 2026, and the l

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 12, 2026 (32 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before October 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before October 30, 2026, and the l

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before October 30, 2026. Otherwis"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.23)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $10.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by October 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by October 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $259
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US crude oil reserves fall to 240M by October 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy