$2.14K
1
10
$2.14K
1
10
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
On Jan 31, 2026 If X is the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts for Jan 31, 2026 then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi.**The Billboard Hot 100 measures music consumption from a Friday to Thursday. This is released as the chart for th
Prediction markets currently assign a 62% probability that "The Fate Of Ophelia" will be the number one song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated January 31, 2026. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views the outcome as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty remaining. The moderate confidence level is underscored by relatively thin liquidity, with only approximately $2,000 in total volume spread across related markets. This suggests the consensus is tentative and driven by a limited pool of traders.
The primary factor is the established commercial pattern of the artist involved. "The Fate of Ophelia" is widely reported to be a forthcoming single by Taylor Swift, an artist with a dominant track record of chart debuts. Her recent album cycles have consistently produced immediate number one singles, driven by massive fanbase mobilization, strategic release timing, and bundled digital sales. The market is essentially pricing in the continuation of this proven formula. A secondary factor is the calendar timing. A late January chart date suggests a strategic release window, often used for major artists to capitalize on post-holiday attention and weaker competition. The market is discounting the risk of a surprise viral hit or a major competing release from another top-tier artist disrupting this planned rollout.
The odds are highly sensitive to official confirmation and the actual release strategy. An official announcement with a confirmed release date would likely solidify the "Yes" probability. Conversely, any delay, change in single selection, or the surprise announcement of a competing blockbuster album release from an artist like Beyoncé or Drake in the same window could rapidly shift sentiment toward "No." Furthermore, the market will react to early streaming data and radio add reports in the days following the song's release. Strong initial numbers would push probabilities higher, while underperformance relative to Swift's past singles could cause a sharp correction. The final arbiter will be Billboard's tracking week covering Friday, January 16 through Thursday, January 22, 2026, with data leaks often moving markets in the days before the official chart announcement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Billboard Hot 100 chart for January 31, 2026, represents the definitive weekly ranking of the most popular songs in the United States, based on a comprehensive formula measuring streaming activity, radio airplay, and digital sales. This specific date falls within the post-holiday period of early 2026, a timeframe historically known for chart stability as the massive consumption of Christmas music subsides and the industry resets for the new year. The identity of the number one song on that date is determined by data collected from the preceding tracking week, which runs from Friday, January 23, 2026, through Thursday, January 29, 2026. The result will be announced by Billboard on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, and will reflect the culmination of listener behavior across platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, and traditional radio networks. Interest in predicting this specific chart outcome stems from its value as a cultural and commercial barometer, indicating which artist or trend has captured the public's attention at the start of a new year. It also serves as a key performance indicator for record labels, streaming services, and marketing campaigns, with significant financial implications tied to a song's peak chart position. The prediction engages music analysts, industry insiders, and fans in forecasting whether an established superstar will maintain dominance, a viral phenomenon will achieve a sustained peak, or a new artist will make a breakthrough.
The Billboard Hot 100 was first published on August 4, 1958, with Ricky Nelson's 'Poor Little Fool' as the inaugural number one. The chart has evolved from a sales and radio-based ranking to its current multi-metric formula, which began incorporating digital sales in 2005 and streaming data in 2012. This evolution reflects the seismic shifts in music consumption, from physical records to digital downloads to streaming dominance. The date of January 31 holds specific historical patterns. It often follows the annual 'chart freeze' in late December, where recurrent holiday songs by Mariah Carey and Brenda Lee dominate, creating a volatile reset in January. For example, on January 31, 2022, Adele's 'Easy on Me' was number one following a 10-week reign, while on January 31, 2023, Miley Cyrus's 'Flowers' debuted at number one, beginning a lengthy stay. The first number one of a calendar year often sets a tone, with recent examples showing that songs achieving the top spot in late January tend to have strong staying power, frequently remaining in the upper echelons of the chart for several months. This period is also a common launch window for major artists seeking a clean chart debut without holiday competition.
Achieving a number one spot on the Billboard Hot 100 is a monumental commercial and cultural milestone that validates an artist's relevance and a label's investment. For the music industry, it triggers substantial financial rewards, including increased royalty payouts, leverage in licensing negotiations for film and advertising, and heightened value for touring and merchandise. A number one song in late January can define an artist's entire year, generating momentum for album releases and award show considerations, particularly for the following year's Grammys. Beyond commerce, the chart reflects and influences popular culture, signaling shifting musical tastes and demographic trends. The song at the top on January 31, 2026, will be dissected by media as an indicator of the year's musical direction, whether towards pop, hip-hop, country, or a genre-blending trend. Its identity affects playlists, radio formats, and even social media discourse, making it a focal point for the broader entertainment ecosystem. For prediction markets, accurately forecasting this outcome tests understanding of data trends, promotional cycles, and public sentiment at a specific cultural moment.
As of late 2024, the Billboard Hot 100 chart continues to be dominated by a mix of established global superstars like Taylor Swift, Drake, and Morgan Wallen, and songs that gain momentum through viral trends on social media platforms like TikTok. The chart methodology remains stable, with Luminate providing the data and Billboard publishing the results each Tuesday. The immediate run-up to January 2026 will be shaped by fourth-quarter 2025 album releases from major artists and any surprise singles dropped in early January 2026. Industry analysts are already looking at release calendars and artist touring schedules for late 2025 as early indicators of potential contenders for the top spot at the start of 2026.
The chart uses a weighted formula based on data from Luminate. It combines on-demand streaming (audio and video, weighted at approximately 55-60%), radio airplay audience impressions (30-35%), and digital song sales (5-10%). All data is tracked from Friday to Thursday for the chart published the following Tuesday.
The new chart is officially published on Billboard's website every Tuesday morning, typically between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM Eastern Time. The chart dated for a Saturday (e.g., January 31, 2026) is released the preceding Tuesday (January 27, 2026).
Yes, it is common in the modern chart era. For a song to debut at number one, it must generate enormous first-week streaming numbers and sales, often driven by a highly anticipated release from a major artist or a massive viral trend. Miley Cyrus's 'Flowers' is a recent example, debuting at number one in January 2023.
Yes, official streams from YouTube and other video-on-demand services that are user-initiated are counted in the streaming component of the Hot 100 formula. Viral performance on YouTube can significantly contribute to a song's chart position.
No. The record for most consecutive weeks at number one is 19, held by Lil Nas X's 'Old Town Road' in 2019. Holding the top spot for all 52 weeks of a year is statistically implausible given chart turnover and competition.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will The Fate Of Ophelia be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 62% |
Will Man I Need be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Choosin' Texas be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will Ordinary be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Golden be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Opalite be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Mutt be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Folded be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will End Of Beginning be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Back To Friends be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts this week? | Kalshi | 1% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/1ypjn6" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Billboard Hot 100 #1 on Jan 31, 2026 chart?"></iframe>