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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Name: Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$245.11K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Vol

$245.11K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $245.11K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $245.11K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Poly	35%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$245.11K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s c"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $245.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $54.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.53)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $152.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $93.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics