Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?

Total Volume

$215.05

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

When will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?

Vol

$215.05

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $215.05

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $215.05

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	51%
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	50%
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	41%
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	27%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$215.05

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

US tariffs on Canada If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action reducing, removing, or suspending an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Any qualifying presidential action must be taken personally during the specified time period and explicitly address the topic in its operative provisions, title, or official White House

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** US tariffs on Canada

If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action reducing, removing, or suspending an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Any qualifying presidential action must be taken personally during the specified time period and explicitly address the topic in its operative provisions, title, or official White House

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action reducing, removing, or suspending an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. S"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $215
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $166
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics