Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

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$27.77K

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How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

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30 markets tracked

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(30)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	43%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	38%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	26%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	25%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	23%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	23%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	20%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	20%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.32% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.33% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.35% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

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$27.77K

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About This Event

In Oct 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not con

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Oct 2026

If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not con

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.35% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $27.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.35% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $836
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.33% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.32% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $322
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $301
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $578
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $580
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $137
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $519
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $513
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Volume$27.77K

Markets30

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KALSHI

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.06% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely

KALSHI

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.0¢No 57.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.07% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely

KALSHI

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.08% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely

KALSHI

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely

KALSHI

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.5¢No 71.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely

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How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

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Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

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How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Markets (30)

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?

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Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

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How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?

Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?

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