Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

Name: Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
End: 2026-10-25T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.70K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

Vol

$14.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.70K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?	Poly	41%
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Poly	26%
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	Poly	21%
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 58-62%?	Poly	12%
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be less than 58%?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$14.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2023 example: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2024/Pdf/G20246006.pdf). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher brack

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 25, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2023 example: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2024/Pdf/G20246006.pdf).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher brack

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $58.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be less than 58%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 58-62%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics