Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii?

Total Volume

$4.06K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii?

Vol

$4.06K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.06K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.06K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Sylvia Luke be out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before Nov 1, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Sylvia Luke be out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

10%

Top Probability

$4.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jul 2026 If Sylvia Luke leaves as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sylvia Luke must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jul 2026

If Sylvia Luke leaves as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sylvia Luke must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sylvia Luke leaves as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Sylvia Luke must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sylvia Luke be out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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