Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: which party wins white women?

Total Volume

$1.22K

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Midterms: which party wins white women?

Vol

$1.22K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.22K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.22K

100%

Kalshi leads

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2 markets tracked

Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?	Kalshi	79%
Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?	Kalshi	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$1.22K

Volume

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 If X wins white women in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, a party “wins” white women if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where X is the number of tied strikes. CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: which party wins white women?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026

If X wins white women in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, a party “wins” white women if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where X is the number of tied strikes. CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican Party wins white women in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” white women if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relev"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $538
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $679
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: which party wins white women?

Volume$1.22K

Markets2

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KALSHI

Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

If the Democratic Party wins white women in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” white women if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relev

KALSHI

Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?

If the Republican Party wins white women in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” white women if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relev

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/2ELEmm" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Midterms: which party wins white women?"></iframe>

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Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

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Midterms: which party wins white women?

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Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?

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Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

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Midterms: which party wins white women?

Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?

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