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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the CA-03 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-03 House seat? | Poly | 10% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
Traders on prediction markets currently give Democrats a roughly 9 in 10 chance of winning California's 3rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm election. This is a very high level of confidence, suggesting the race is seen as strongly favoring one party. The market implies the Republican candidate has only about a 1 in 10 chance of an upset victory.
The high odds for a Democratic win are based on the district's recent voting history and its current representative. CA-03 is held by Democrat Kevin Kiley, who first won the seat in 2022. While the district's boundaries were redrawn before that election, making it more competitive on paper, Kiley secured re-election in 2024 by a comfortable margin of about 10 percentage points.
This district covers a large area northeast of Sacramento, including parts of Placer and Sacramento Counties and all of Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, El Dorado, and Mono Counties. It's a mix of suburban, rural, and mountain communities. The 2024 result, where a Republican presidential candidate likely carried the district while the Republican House candidate lost, shows a trend of voters here splitting their tickets in favor of the incumbent. Markets are betting that Kiley, assuming he runs again, will benefit from this incumbency advantage and the established voting pattern.
The main event is Election Day on November 4, 2026. However, several earlier developments could change the forecast. The candidate filing deadline in early 2026 will confirm who is running. If Representative Kiley decides not to seek re-election, the market would likely shift significantly as traders assess an open race. The primary election, likely in March 2026, will finalize the party nominees. National political trends in 2026, such as the president's approval rating or the state of the economy, could also affect this district-level race.
Prediction markets have a solid record in forecasting U.S. House elections, especially for seats with a clear incumbent advantage and consistent voting history. For a race like this one, where an incumbent won comfortably in the last cycle, the market's high confidence is often justified. The main limitation is time. This forecast is for an event over two years away, and a lot can change in politics. The prediction is a snapshot of current collective belief based on available information, not a guaranteed outcome. Unforeseen events, a strong challenger, or a major national political shift could make the race more competitive.
Prediction markets assign a 91% probability that a Democrat will win California's 3rd Congressional District in the 2026 House election. This price indicates near-certainty in the market's view, though the low $2,000 trading volume means this consensus is built on thin liquidity. The market will resolve on November 3, 2026, based on the officially called result.
The overwhelming confidence in a Democratic victory is rooted in the district's recent electoral history and demographic profile. CA-03, covering parts of the Sacramento suburbs and rural northern counties, has been represented by Democrat Kevin Kiley since 2023. However, Kiley first won the seat in a 2022 special election against a Republican opponent by a margin of 7.4 points, and the Cook Political Report currently rates the district as R+2. The 91% Democratic price appears to heavily discount this recent Republican success and the district's slight rightward lean. The pricing likely reflects a broader national betting trend favoring Democrats in 2026 House races, which may be overriding district-specific analysis in a low-volume market.
The current odds are vulnerable to significant shifts based on candidate announcements and the national political environment. If incumbent Kevin Kiley, a Republican, seeks re-election, his proven electoral success in the district would challenge the market's extreme Democratic lean. A strong Republican challenger, should Kiley retire, could also rapidly adjust probabilities. The thin trading volume means a single large, informed bet could move the price substantially. Key dates to watch are the candidate filing deadlines in early 2026, which will provide the first concrete signal of the competitive landscape. The market's high probability leaves it exposed to a major correction if district-level fundamentals re-enter traders' calculus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for California's 3rd Congressional District (CA-03). The market resolves based on the political party of the winning candidate in the November 4, 2026, midterm election. The district's party affiliation will be determined by the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party affiliation at the time all 2026 House races are officially called by the market's designated resolution sources. This includes scenarios where a candidate runs without a formal party label. CA-03 is a geographically large district covering northeastern California, including parts of the Sacramento Valley and the Sierra Nevada mountains. It contains all or portions of ten counties: Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Lake, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sierra, Sutter, and Yolo. The district's political dynamics are shaped by its mix of agricultural communities, growing suburban areas near Sacramento, and rural mountain regions. Interest in this market stems from its status as a competitive district that has shifted between parties in recent cycles, making it a potential bellwether for broader national trends in the 2026 midterms. The outcome could influence the balance of power in the House and reflect voter sentiment in a politically diverse part of California.
California's 3rd Congressional District has a history of competitive elections and party shifts. From 2009 to 2023, the district was represented by Democrat John Garamendi, who won multiple terms often by comfortable margins. However, the district's political landscape changed significantly after the 2020 census and subsequent redistricting by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. The new map, finalized in December 2021 and first used in the 2022 election, altered the district's boundaries, removing Democratic-leaning areas in the East Bay and adding more Republican territory in the Sierra foothills and Sacramento Valley. This redesign made the district more favorable to Republicans. In the 2022 election, Republican Kevin Kiley defeated Democrat Kermit Jones, 53.3% to 45.9%, to claim the seat. The district's voter registration history shows a trend. In February 2022, Democrats held a narrow registration advantage of 1.4 percentage points over Republicans. By February 2024, that had flipped, with Republicans holding a 3.6-point registration advantage according to the California Secretary of State, reflecting the new boundaries' impact and shifting voter allegiances. The 2024 election saw a rematch between Kiley and Jones, with Kiley winning again by a slightly reduced margin of approximately 5 points, suggesting the district remains competitive but leans Republican under its current configuration.
The outcome of the CA-03 race has implications for national politics. As a swing district in the nation's most populous state, its results are analyzed as a indicator of broader midterm election trends. A Democratic win could signal a potential wave election favoring the party not holding the White House, a common historical pattern in midterms. A Republican hold would suggest resilience in districts that shifted right after the 2021 redistricting. The race also matters for California's political representation. The district encompasses major agricultural regions, federal water projects like the Central Valley Project, and communities affected by wildfire policy and forest management. The winning candidate will influence federal legislation on these critical issues for the region. Furthermore, the campaign itself will involve millions of dollars in spending, influencing local media markets and engaging thousands of volunteers and voters in the democratic process. The result directly affects the partisan balance of the House of Representatives, where even a single seat can determine which party controls the chamber and sets the legislative agenda.
As of early 2025, Republican Kevin Kiley is the incumbent representative for CA-03 following his re-election in November 2024. The Democratic Party has not yet officially named a challenger for the 2026 race. Potential candidates, including 2022 and 2024 nominee Kermit Jones, are likely considering another run, but no formal declarations have been made. The district's boundaries are set for the 2026 election, as the next redistricting will not occur until after the 2030 census. Political action committees and party organizations are beginning to assess the race's competitiveness for the next cycle, with initial fundraising and polling expected to begin in late 2025.
CA-03 includes all of Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Lake, Nevada, Placer, Sierra, Sutter, and Yolo counties. It also includes a portion of Sacramento County, specifically the cities of Citrus Heights and Folsom, and surrounding unincorporated areas.
Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley won re-election in November 2024, defeating Democratic challenger Kermit Jones. This was a rematch of the 2022 election, which Kiley also won.
Based on recent election results and voter registration, CA-03 is currently considered a Republican-leaning district. However, its margins have been close enough for Democrats to compete, making it a potential swing district in a favorable national political environment.
The 2026 midterm election, which includes the race for California's 3rd Congressional District, will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The California primary election to select party nominees will be held earlier that year, likely in June.
California uses a top-two primary system for congressional elections. All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same primary ballot. The two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary advance to the general election in November, even if they are from the same political party.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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