Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Total Volume

$19.48K

Events

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Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Vol

$19.48K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $19.48K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.48K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)	Kalshi	66%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)	Kalshi	49%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)	Kalshi	41%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)	Kalshi	16%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)	Kalshi	14%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Anna Paulson)	Kalshi	8%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michael Barr)	Kalshi	5%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)	Kalshi	2%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)	Kalshi	2%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (John Williams)	Kalshi	2%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Philip Jefferson)	Kalshi	2%
Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Jerome Powell)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

66%

Top Probability

$19.48K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

October 2026 FOMC If X formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 2026 FOMC

If X formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Philip Jefferson formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Philip Jefferson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $211
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michael Barr)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $410
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $410
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $410
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (John Williams)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Jerome Powell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $260
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Anna Paulson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Volume$19.48K

Markets12

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KALSHI

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢

KALSHICrypto

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

If Beth Hammack formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)

If Lorie Logan formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)

If Neel Kashkari formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

If Michelle Bowman formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

If Christopher Waller formally dissented at the October 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

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17¢

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Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?

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Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Markets (12)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

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Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

Who will dissent at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

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