This prediction market topic focuses on the electoral performance of André Ventura in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election, scheduled for January 18, 2026. The market resolves based on the certified percentage of valid votes Ventura receives, calculated as his total votes divided by all valid votes cast, multiplied by 100. This specific metric provides a precise measure of his political support at a national level, distinct from parliamentary or local elections. The outcome serves as a key indicator of the strength and reach of Portugal's far-right political movement, led by Ventura's party, Chega (Enough). André Ventura's candidacy represents a significant test for Portugal's political establishment. Historically a stable democracy with a strong centrist tradition, Portugal has seen a notable rise in support for Chega since its founding in 2019. The presidential election, while largely ceremonial in executive power, functions as a crucial national popularity contest and a barometer for political trends. A strong showing by Ventura could signal a durable realignment in Portuguese politics and influence the strategies of mainstream parties. Recent developments have heightened interest in this race. In the 2024 European Parliament elections, Chega secured a substantial vote share, demonstrating its growing appeal. Furthermore, the 2025 Portuguese legislative elections saw Chega become the third-largest party in the Assembly of the Republic, entering into a controversial parliamentary agreement with the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) government. This has positioned Ventura as a central, albeit polarizing, figure whose presidential run will test whether his support extends beyond protest voting to a sustained national coalition. Analysts and political observers are monitoring this market to gauge several factors: the ceiling of far-right support in Portugal, potential voter mobilization strategies, and the effectiveness of mainstream party responses. The result will also offer insights into European political trends, comparing Portugal's experience with the rise of populist right-wing movements in other EU member states like France, Italy, and Spain. The certified vote percentage provides a concrete, unambiguous data point for these analyses.

Historical Context

The 2026 presidential election occurs in a Portugal that has undergone a significant political transformation over the past decade. For nearly 50 years following the 1974 Carnation Revolution, the political landscape was dominated by a stable two-party system alternating between the center-left Socialist Party (PS) and the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), often in coalition with the smaller CDS-PP. This duopoly began to fracture after the 2011-2014 troika bailout and the subsequent austerity measures, which fueled public disillusionment with traditional parties. André Ventura's political rise is the most dramatic manifestation of this shift. He first ran for president in January 2021, achieving a result of 11.9%, which was considered a political earthquake. This was followed by Chega's breakthrough in the 2022 legislative elections, where it won 12 seats and 7.2% of the vote. The party's growth accelerated in the March 2024 legislative elections, where it secured 50 seats and 18.1% of the vote, becoming the third-largest political force. Historically, far-right movements had been marginal in post-dictatorship Portugal, making Chega's success unprecedented. The presidency itself has historically been won by candidates from the two main parties or respected independents with broad consensus. The last incumbent president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, was elected in 2016 and re-elected in 2021 with over 60% of the vote in the first round, showcasing the office's tendency to favor unifying figures. Ventura's candidacy tests whether the presidency, a symbol of national unity, can be won by a deliberately divisive figure. Past results provide a direct benchmark: his 2021 vote share of 11.9% is the baseline from which his 2026 performance will be measured.

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