Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIAI

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?

Total Volume

$14.30K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?

Vol

$14.30K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $14.30K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.30K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	20%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

20%

Top Probability

$14.30K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If Anthropic announces a complete solution, developed by Anthropic or researchers collaborating directly with Anthropic on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying announcement must expressly state that Anthropic developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with Anthropic on developing that solution.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
**Category:** AI | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If Anthropic announces a complete solution, developed by Anthropic or researchers collaborating directly with Anthropic on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying announcement must expressly state that Anthropic developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with Anthropic on developing that solution.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Anthropic announces a complete solution, developed by Anthropic or researchers collaborating directly with Anthropic on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The qualifying "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $14.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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