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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives. If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose l
Prediction markets currently give the left-wing Pacto Histórico (PH) coalition a roughly 7 in 10 chance of winning the most seats in Colombia’s Chamber of Representatives on March 8. This means traders collectively see it as the most likely outcome, but not a certainty. The opposing center-right coalition is given about a 3 in 10 chance. With about $200,000 wagered across platforms, this is a moderately followed political forecast.
The odds favor the Pacto Histórico for a few reasons. First, the coalition is led by President Gustavo Petro, whose party typically gains support in midterm elections from the base that elected him. Second, recent regional elections showed strength for left-wing candidates, suggesting the coalition's political machinery is effective. Finally, the main opposition is fragmented among several center-right parties, which could split the vote and make it harder for any single one to surpass the PH's seat count. Historical patterns in Colombian politics often show the president's party performing well in the first congressional election of their term.
All attention is on election day, March 8, 2026. Preliminary results will start coming in that evening. The official seat count, which determines the winner, may take days to finalize as votes are fully tallied. Before then, watch for any last-minute polls or major campaign events in early March that could signal a shift in momentum. Since this is a parliamentary election, there are no scheduled debates or single triggering event, so the final week of campaigning is the main period that could change minds.
Prediction markets have a solid record forecasting election winners in established democracies, often outperforming polls. For Colombian elections specifically, markets have been fairly accurate in recent cycles. However, the main limitation here is the moderate amount of money wagered; a market with higher volume can be more confident. Also, parliamentary seat forecasts can be trickier than simple presidential winner-take-all markets, as they depend on complex district-level results. The 2% disagreement between different trading platforms suggests some minor uncertainty in the exact probability, but a clear favorite.
Prediction markets assign a 70% probability that the Historical Pact (PH) coalition will win the most seats in Colombia's Chamber of Representatives on March 8. This price, translating to an implied 7 in 10 chance, shows the market views a PH victory as the clear base case. The "Other" contract trades at 30%, indicating a significant minority view that another party could secure a plurality. Combined volume across platforms exceeds $200,000, providing moderate liquidity for traders.
The pricing reflects the PH's consolidation as Colombia's dominant political force. President Gustavo Petro's coalition secured a plurality in the 2022 legislative elections and has since absorbed key allies, including parts of the Liberal Party. Current polling for the 2026 presidential race, which influences down-ballot legislative contests, consistently shows candidates aligned with the PH leading. The market is pricing in the advantage of incumbency and a fragmented opposition, where conservative and centrist parties are struggling to unite behind a single electoral list that could challenge the PH's organized base.
The primary risk to the PH's 70% probability is a successful opposition coalition. Parties like the Conservative Party and the new "Fuerza de la Paz" movement are exploring alliances. A unified anti-Petro list announced before the candidate registration deadline in late 2025 could shift odds dramatically. Second, a downturn in Petro's public approval, currently around 40%, could depress turnout for PH legislative candidates. The market will closely watch the March 2025 regional elections as a key bellwether for coalition strength and voter sentiment ahead of the national vote.
A 2.4% price spread exists between platforms. Kalshi shows slightly higher prices for the PH contract compared to Polymarket. This gap likely stems from differing trader demographics and minor variations in market mechanics, such as Kalshi's lower minimum trade size attracting more retail participation. The spread is narrow enough that it does not suggest a major arbitrage opportunity, but it indicates Polymarket traders may be marginally more skeptical of a PH victory than those on Kalshi.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election, specifically which political party or coalition will win the most seats. The Chamber of Representatives is the lower house of Colombia's bicameral Congress, composed of 188 members elected for four-year terms through a system of proportional representation. The election is scheduled for March 2026, concurrent with the presidential election and the election for the Senate. The winner is determined by which party or formal pre-registered alliance secures the greatest number of seats, with specific rules for resolving ties based on government participation and vote share. The 2026 election will be a major test for President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, which won a plurality in the 2022 legislative elections but fell short of a majority. Interest in the outcome stems from its direct impact on the governability of whoever wins the presidency, as control of the chamber is essential for passing legislation, approving the national budget, and conducting political oversight. The result will signal the strength of Colombia's political realignment toward the left or a potential conservative resurgence.
Colombia's Chamber of Representatives has been characterized by multiparty fragmentation for decades, with no single party winning an outright majority since the adoption of the 1991 Constitution. The traditional dominance of the Liberal and Conservative parties began eroding in the early 2000s with the rise of uribismo under Álvaro Uribe. His Democratic Center party became the largest force in the chamber following the 2018 elections, holding 32 seats. This marked a right-wing consolidation. The 2022 legislative elections produced a significant shift. The left-wing Historical Pact coalition, led by Gustavo Petro, won a plurality with 28 seats, while the Democratic Center fell to 16 seats. The Liberal and Conservative parties won 35 and 25 seats respectively, but significant factions within each later agreed to support Petro's government. This fragmentation has made governing complex, requiring constant negotiation. The 2026 election will occur in the final year of Petro's term, a period historically challenging for incumbent parties. Mid-term elections in 2023 for local offices showed mixed results, with losses for some Historical Pact candidates but also setbacks for traditional parties in major cities.
The composition of the Chamber of Representatives determines the feasibility of the national government's legislative program. A chamber controlled by the president's coalition enables smoother passage of reforms related to health, pensions, labor, and tax policy. A hostile or fragmented chamber can lead to legislative gridlock, forcing governments to rely on decrees or complex political pacts that slow governance. Economically, investors and credit rating agencies monitor these elections closely. A stable, predictable majority can support long-term fiscal planning and infrastructure projects, while a fractured congress often leads to budgetary delays and policy uncertainty that can affect markets and the peso. Socially, the chamber's agenda influences resource allocation for social programs, security policy, and implementation of the 2016 peace agreement. The election is also a barometer for the strength of Colombia's political realignment, testing whether Petro's 2022 victory represented a durable shift to the left or a one-time occurrence.
As of late 2024, political maneuvering for the 2026 elections is intensifying. President Petro's Historical Pact coalition is working to maintain unity among its diverse factions while attempting to formalize alliances with parties like the Liberals and Conservatives. The opposition, led by the Democratic Center, is regrouping and criticizing the government's economic and security policies. Several traditional parties are conducting internal primaries and debates about whether to remain in the government coalition or join a unified opposition bloc. The National Electoral Council is expected to open the formal period for party and coalition registration in 2025.
Members are elected for four-year terms using a system of proportional representation. The country is divided into 33 territorial districts (32 departments and the capital district of Bogotá), plus special seats for Indigenous communities and Colombians living abroad. Voters choose a party list, and seats are allocated to lists based on their share of the vote within each district.
The Chamber of Representatives has 188 members elected by regional districts, representing territorial constituencies. The Senate has 108 members elected through a single national constituency, representing the nation as a whole. Both chambers have equal legislative power, but the Chamber has exclusive authority to initiate bills related to taxation and the budget.
The 2022 election was won by the left-wing Historical Pact coalition, which secured a plurality of 28 seats. The traditional Liberal Party won the most seats of any single party (35), but as it was not part of a single pre-registered coalition for that election, the Historical Pact was declared the winner for market resolution purposes.
The next election for both the Chamber of Representatives and the Senate is scheduled for March 2026. It will be held on the same day as the first round of the presidential election, a common practice in Colombia to reduce electoral costs and increase turnout.
No. The Colombian Constitution prohibits immediate presidential re-election. Gustavo Petro cannot be a candidate in the 2026 presidential election. However, his influence over the Historical Pact coalition's campaign for the Chamber of Representatives will be substantial.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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In 2026 If X wins the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives. If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose l
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives. If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by Decembe
If Liberal Party wins the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives. If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by Decembe
If Conservative Party wins the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all othe
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives. If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by Decembe
If Democratic Center wins the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all other
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