This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

New Zealand Election: Turnout

Name: New Zealand Election: Turnout
End: 2026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$41.47

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

New Zealand Election: Turnout

Vol

$41.47

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $41.47

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $41.47

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Poly	39%
Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Poly	27%
Will voter turnout be less than 76% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Poly	26%
Will voter turnout be between 80% and 82% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Poly	25%
Will voter turnout be between 82% and 84% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Poly	24%
Will voter turnout be 84% or higher in the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Poly	24%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$41.47

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of thi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New Zealand Election: Turnout
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 7, 2026 (120 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of thi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to ele"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $41
* **Total Liquidity:** $589
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will voter turnout be between 80% and 82% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will voter turnout be 84% or higher in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will voter turnout be less than 76% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will voter turnout be between 82% and 84% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics