Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

Total Volume

$16.30K

Events

Markets

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New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

Vol

$16.30K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $16.30K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.30K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	53%
Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	41%
Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Rawiri Waititi become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Qiulae Wong become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Nicola Willis become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Mark Mitchell become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Marama Davidson become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Erica Stanford become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will David Seymour become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Debbie Ngarewa-Packer become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Chris Bishop become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$16.30K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Nov 7, 2027 If X becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parli

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Nov 7, 2027

If X becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parli

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Winston Peters becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $871
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rawiri Waititi become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $871
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Qiulae Wong become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $871
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Nicola Willis become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mark Mitchell become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $871
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Marama Davidson become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $871
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Erica Stanford become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $871
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will David Seymour become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Debbie Ngarewa-Packer become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $871
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Chris Bishop become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

Volume$16.30K

Markets14

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KALSHI

Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

If Christopher Luxon becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who,

KALSHI

Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.0¢No 59.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

If Chris Hipkins becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a

KALSHI

Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

If Chlöe Swarbrick becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as

KALSHI

Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

If Winston Peters becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as

KALSHI

Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

If Simeon Brown becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/LgxkM2" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?"></iframe>

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New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

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Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

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Events (1)

New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

Markets (14)

Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

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Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

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