Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Saudi crude oil production in September

Total Volume

$2.42K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Saudi crude oil production in September

Vol

$2.42K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.42K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.42K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?	Kalshi	98%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?	Kalshi	98%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?	Kalshi	95%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?	Kalshi	93%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?	Kalshi	85%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 6.0 million bpd?	Kalshi	74%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 6.5 million bpd?	Kalshi	62%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 7.0 million bpd?	Kalshi	51%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 7.5 million bpd?	Kalshi	41%
Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 8.0 million bpd?	Kalshi	32%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$2.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above X million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference period. Specifically, the market will use the Saudi production figure identified in the note accompanying the table titled “OPEC crude oil production based on direct communication.” This market will not us

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Saudi crude oil production in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above X million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference period. Specifically, the market will use the Saudi production figure identified in the note accompanying the table titled “OPEC crude oil production based on direct communication.” This market will not us

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above 

8.0 million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 8.0 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 7.5 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 7.0 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $314
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 6.5 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $386
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 6.0 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $137
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $179
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $114
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $236
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Saudi crude oil production in September

Volume$2.42K

Markets10

10 of 10

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KALSHI

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above 4.0 million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference

KALSHI

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?

If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above 3.5 million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference

KALSHI

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?

If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above 4.5 million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference

KALSHI

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?

If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above 5.0 million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference

KALSHI

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?

If OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 was above 5.5 million bpd, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The outcome will be determined using Saudi Arabia’s production figure in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report covering the September 2026 reference

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Saudi crude oil production in September

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Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

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Events (1)

Saudi crude oil production in September

Markets (10)

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?

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Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Saudi crude oil production in September

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.0 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 3.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 4.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.0 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?

Will Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 be above 5.5 million bpd?

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