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| Market | Platform | Price |
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![]() | Poly | 50% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the CBB game between Texas Tech Red Raiders and Baylor Bears on January 20 at 9:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction markets currently price a Texas Tech Red Raiders victory at 51%, implying the market views this women's basketball matchup as essentially a coin flip. This razor-thin margin indicates no clear favorite, with the implied probability suggesting the outcome is perceived as highly uncertain. The "Uncertain" tag on the market accurately reflects this statistical deadlock.
The near-even pricing is primarily driven by the competitive landscape of Big 12 conference play, where home court advantage and recent performance are critical. Texas Tech likely holds a slight edge in the odds due to the game being played on their home floor, a traditional factor priced into prediction markets. Secondly, the relative parity in the teams' records and conference standings contributes to this uncertainty. Without a dominant statistical leader, the market struggles to assign a higher confidence level to either side, reflecting a matchup perceived as a toss-up by analysts and bettors alike.
The odds are highly sensitive to last-minute news, particularly player availability regarding injuries or illness, which could swing probabilities several points. A key injury report released closer to the January 21 tip-off would be a major catalyst. Furthermore, the market will absorb sharper betting action as game time approaches, especially from bettors reacting to the final public betting lines and expert picks. A significant money flow toward one side in the 24 hours before the game could move the price meaningfully from its current equilibrium.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi eliminates an opportunity for cross-platform arbitrage and concentrates all trading sentiment and liquidity into a single price discovery mechanism. This can sometimes lead to less efficient pricing compared to markets with competing platforms, but the current 51% value is consistent with a broadly uncertain appraisal of the game's outcome.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
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The upcoming men's college basketball game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Baylor Bears on January 20 at 9:00 PM ET represents a significant early-season clash in the Big 12 Conference. This matchup is a prediction market topic where participants can wager on the game's outcome, with specific rules governing postponements and cancellations. The game will be played at the Foster Pavilion in Waco, Texas, marking Baylor's first home game against Texas Tech in their new arena. This contest carries substantial weight in the conference standings and NCAA Tournament seeding projections, featuring two programs with recent national success and intense regional rivalry. Interest in this market stems from both the competitive implications and the specific contractual terms for resolution, which account for potential schedule disruptions. The game is televised nationally on ESPN, amplifying its visibility and the volume of predictive activity. Observers are closely monitoring team health, recent performance trends, and coaching strategies that could influence the final result and, consequently, market settlements.
The basketball rivalry between Texas Tech and Baylor dates back to 1938, with the series historically favoring Baylor, who leads the all-time series 89-83 as of January 2024. The dynamic shifted in the 2010s as both programs ascended to national prominence under coaches Chris Beard at Texas Tech and Scott Drew at Baylor. This period produced memorable clashes, including Texas Tech's victory over top-ranked Baylor in 2020, which helped secure a share of the Big 12 regular season title for the Red Raiders. The most significant historical context is Baylor's 2021 National Championship, a landmark achievement that cemented the program's elite status. Texas Tech reached the NCAA Championship game in 2019 under Beard, establishing its own period of sustained success. Recent meetings have been characterized by defensive intensity and close scores, with five of the last ten games decided by single digits. The geographical proximity within Texas adds a recruiting and regional pride element to the competition, making each matchup a significant event for both fan bases.
This game matters significantly for NCAA Tournament seeding and the competitive hierarchy of the Big 12 Conference, widely considered the strongest basketball conference in the nation for the 2023-2024 season. A victory provides crucial Quadrant 1 resume building for March Madness selection and seeding committees, directly impacting potential postseason paths and financial distributions from the NCAA Tournament. For the universities, success in high-profile conference games enhances brand visibility, student recruitment, and alumni engagement. The prediction market itself reflects the growing integration of sports analytics and fan engagement, where detailed knowledge of team matchups, player availability, and coaching trends can inform speculative activity. Beyond the immediate result, the game's outcome influences recruiting narratives within the talent-rich state of Texas, where both programs compete for top prospects. The economic impact includes television revenue shares for the Big 12 Conference and increased merchandise sales for the winning institution.
As of mid-January 2024, both teams are engaged in the rigorous early schedule of Big 12 Conference play. Baylor enters the game with a strong overall record, having secured several ranked wins, and is positioned in the top tier of the conference standings. Texas Tech has shown improvement under McCasland but faces a challenging stretch of road games. The latest developments include monitoring player health and practice reports ahead of the Saturday night tip-off. Baylor is coming off a conference win, while Texas Tech is looking to rebound from a recent loss. All scheduled players are expected to be available for the contest, with no major injuries reported that would significantly alter the pre-game analysis. The market is active with wagers reflecting Baylor's status as a substantial home favorite.
The game is scheduled to be played at the Foster Pavilion in Waco, Texas. This is Baylor University's new basketball arena, which opened in January 2024.
The game is scheduled for a 9:00 PM ET tip-off and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Streaming is available through the ESPN app with a valid cable subscription.
Baylor is a significant favorite to win the game, primarily due to their undefeated home record, superior offensive rankings, and historical dominance in Waco. Sportsbooks and prediction markets reflect this favoritism.
According to the prediction market rules, if the game is postponed, the market will remain open and unresolved until the game is completed. The outcome will then be determined by the final result of the rescheduled contest.
If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game scheduled, the prediction market rules state it will resolve as a 50-50 split. This means all contracts will be settled at a value of $0.50.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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