Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Iowa Senate winner?

Name: Iowa Senate winner?
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.76M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Iowa Senate winner?

Vol

$5.76M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $870.74K

Kalshi

markets · $4.89M

Price Spread

0.5%avg

max 1.0%

Arbitrage

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.76M

85%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	59%	59%	0%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	43%	42%	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$5.76M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iowa Senate winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nom"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.76M
* **Total Liquidity:** $374.6K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 15.37)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $482.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.57M
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $388.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.32M
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Iowa Senate winner?

Volume$4.89M

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Iowa Senate Election Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affi

Volume$870.74K

Markets2

2 of 2

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POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average58.5%

Polymarket

58.5%

Kalshi

58.5%

Difference:0.0%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 58.5¢No 41.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 58.5¢No 41.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average42.0%

Polymarket+1.0%

42.5%

Kalshi

41.5%

Difference:1.0%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details

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Next Market Closes

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Nov 04, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

51¢

Polymarket

50¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/2X7GJ1" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Iowa Senate winner?"></iframe>

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Iowa Senate winner?