Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHICommodities

Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

Total Volume

$2.18K

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Markets

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Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

Vol

$2.18K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.18K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.18K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?	Kalshi	89%
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb?	Kalshi	51%
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb?	Kalshi	50%
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb?	Kalshi	50%
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb?	Kalshi	50%
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 75¢/lb?	Kalshi	50%
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 70¢/lb?	Kalshi	50%
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 105¢/lb?	Kalshi	50%
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 100¢/lb?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$2.18K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

November 2026 If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts, 25MT, futures, AUP, November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least X U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the official final settlement price for the November 2026 CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts, 25MT, futures contract, AUP. This final settlement is the benchmark use

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026
**Category:** Commodities | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** November 2026

If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts, 25MT, futures, AUP, November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least X U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the official final settlement price for the November 2026 CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts, 25MT, futures contract, AUP. This final settlement is the benchmark use

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts (25MT) futures (AUP), November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least 95 U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $560
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $560
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 75¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $181
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 70¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $78
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 105¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $700
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 100¢/lb?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHICommodities

Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

Volume$2.18K

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.0¢No 11.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts (25MT) futures (AUP), November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least 80 U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary

KALSHI

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb?

If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts (25MT) futures (AUP), November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least 110 U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondar

KALSHI

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb?

If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts (25MT) futures (AUP), November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least 95 U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary

KALSHI

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb?

If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts (25MT) futures (AUP), November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least 90 U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary

KALSHI

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb?

If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts (25MT) futures (AUP), November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least 85 U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary

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54¢

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Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

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Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

Markets (9)

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb?

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Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Aluminum Midwest premium average in November 2026

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb?

Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb?

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