Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Where will it rain on October 12?

Name: Where will it rain on October 12?
End: 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$791.63

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Where will it rain on October 12?

Vol

$791.63

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $791.63

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $791.63

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?	Poly	91%
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?	Poly	85%
Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?	Poly	78%
Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12?	Poly	77%
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?	Poly	63%
Will it rain in Houston, TX on October 12?	Poly	37%
Will it rain in New York, NY on October 12?	Poly	28%
Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 12?	Poly	27%
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on October 12?	Poly	13%
Will it rain in Dallas, TX on October 12?	Poly	5%
Will it rain in Seattle, WA on October 12?	Poly	2%
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 12?	Poly	2%
Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 12?	Poly	2%
Will it rain in San Francisco, CA on October 12?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$791.63

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The ob

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will it rain on October 12?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 13, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station.

A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.

The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.

The ob

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if New York, NY records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's s"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $792
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it rain in New York, NY on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $132
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it rain in Chicago, IL on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it rain in Houston, TX on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it rain in Dallas, TX on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $98
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will it rain in Seattle, WA on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will it rain in San Francisco, CA on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech

Where will it rain on October 12?

Volume$791.63

Markets14

14 of 14

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POLYMARKET

Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

CLOSING SOON

Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Boston, MA records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's sta

POLYMARKET

Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

CLOSING SOON

Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Philadelphia, PA records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city

POLYMARKET

Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

CLOSING SOON

Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Washington, DC records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's

POLYMARKET

Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

CLOSING SOON

Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Los Angeles, CA records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city'

POLYMARKET

Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

CLOSING SOON

Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoenix, AZ records measurable precipitation on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's st

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Next Market Closes

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Oct 13, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

36¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/2cQmin" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Where will it rain on October 12?"></iframe>

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Where will it rain on October 12?

Where will it rain on October 12?

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Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Where will it rain on October 12?

Markets (14)

Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?

Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?

Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?

Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?

Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12?

Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12?

Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?

Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Where will it rain on October 12?

Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 12?

Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?

Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 12?

Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?

Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 12?

Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12?

Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 12?

Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?

Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 12?

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Discussion

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