Name: UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)
End: 2026-02-01T04:59:59.999Z

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UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims) | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	83%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	66%
Will Keiichiro Nakamura win by KO or TKO?	Poly	56%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	52%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	47%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	38%
UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	Poly	29%
Will Sebastian Szalay win by KO or TKO?	Poly	16%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	13%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Szalay" if Sebastian Szalay is officially declared the winner of the fight against Keiichiro Nakamura at UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, scheduled for January 31, 2026.

It will resolve to "Nakamura" if Keiichiro Nakamura is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Sebastian Szalay and Keiichiro Nakamura at UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, scheduled for January 31, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." 

D"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $163.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $86.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.90)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Keiichiro Nakamura win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $161.3K
  DATA: [Szalay: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [Nakamura: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Sebastian Szalay win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Over: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 1, 2026): Vol $616
  DATA: [Over: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 48.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Average Yes Price

44¢

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UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

Markets (9)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

Will Sebastian Szalay win by KO or TKO?

Will Sebastian Szalay win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

Will Sebastian Szalay win by KO or TKO?

Will Sebastian Szalay win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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