GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

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Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

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12 markets tracked

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)	Kalshi	15%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)	Kalshi	13%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)	Kalshi	10%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)	Kalshi	10%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)	Kalshi	9%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)	Kalshi	9%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michael Barr)	Kalshi	9%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Anna Paulson)	Kalshi	8%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)	Kalshi	7%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Jerome Powell)	Kalshi	3%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Philip Jefferson)	Kalshi	2%
Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (John Williams)	Kalshi	2%

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About This Event

July 2026 FOMC If X formally dissented at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** July 2026 FOMC

If X formally dissented at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Philip Jefferson formally dissented at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Philip Jefferson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Neel Kashkari)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michael Barr)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lorie Logan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (John Williams)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Jerome Powell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Anna Paulson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

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KALSHI

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHICrypto

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

If Beth Hammack formally dissented at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

If Michelle Bowman formally dissented at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)

If Kevin Warsh formally dissented at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

If Christopher Waller formally dissented at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)

If Lisa Cook formally dissented at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs

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Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

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Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

Markets (12)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)

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Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Beth Hammack)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Michelle Bowman)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Kevin Warsh)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Christopher Waller)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)

Who will dissent at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? (Lisa Cook)

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