West Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.8K
1
11
West Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.8K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 30-35% at 31.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 30-35%31.5%
- Republican 35-40%19%
- Republican 25-30%19%
- Republican 40-45%10%
- Republican 20-25%8.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $14.8K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 West Virginia Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 West Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event concerns the 2026 West Virginia Senate election, which the source describes as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Each market resolves on the margin of victory, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees count as party options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
The contracts differ in wording. Ten ask whether the Republican Party candidate wins by a given margin range or by 50% or more, while one asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the election [1]. These are different questions, so their prices should be read separately rather than as one ladder.
Resolution depends on the official vote count. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a rule deadline, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-20T03:08:58.547Z [1]. These are observation-time snapshots. They are not current quotes, not executable prices, and not verified probabilities. The listed end time for the markets is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event, and the record does not flag partial sampling [1]. The provider's sample warning states that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1].
Among the Republican margin brackets, the highest Yes price is 0.315 for a 30% to 35% margin, and the 0% to 10% bracket shows 0.015 Yes [1]. The Democratic winner contract shows 0.021 Yes [1]. Because these are separate contracts with different wording, do not add, average, or compare them as if they were interchangeable. A difference in price between contracts with different rules is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders, and volume would not establish any of these. Prices may have changed after the observation time, so a current check requires a current source. The evidence also does not include the election result, certification timing, any recount activity, or news about the candidates.
References
- Polymarket: West Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract is part of a Polymarket event titled "West Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory" for the 2026 West Virginia Senate election. The provider's rules state that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask who wins in the simple sense. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates, measured in percentage points of valid votes [1]. Under the rules, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract's listed brackets are therefore ranges of this gap, such as 0% to 10%, 10% to 15%, and 50% or more, along with a separate contract about whether the Democratic Party candidate wins [1]. The rules say candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is a listed time in the contract, not an announced event date, and resolution depends on the official count as described below. The sample saved for this topic includes all 11 markets in the event, so no markets were omitted from this event's saved set [1]. The saved set does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed.
Historical Context
The supplied sources include a Wikipedia article on the 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia. It states that the election took place on November 6, 2018, and that incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin won re-election to a second full term against Republican Patrick Morrisey, who had been West Virginia's State Attorney General since 2013 [2]. The same article notes that Morrisey conceded on election night [2]. This is historical background from the 2018 race and does not identify the 2026 candidates. A second supplied Wikipedia article covers the 2006 United States Senate elections, which were held on November 7, 2006, with all 33 Class 1 Senate seats contested [3]. That article does not address West Virginia specifically, so it provides only general context about Senate election cycles.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness in a precise way. A market on the winning party tells a reader who is expected to win, while this contract tells a reader how decisive the result is expected to be [1]. Because the calculation uses valid votes and the top two candidates, the margin reflects the gap between those two vote shares rather than total turnout or the number of votes cast for minor candidates [1]. The rules also show how the contract handles uncertainty. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If a recount is started before the count is official, the market stays open until the recount ends and the vote is certified [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Readers should treat the prices shown in the snapshot as observed values at a point in time, not as executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is that candidate's valid votes divided by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in the Democrat or Republican contracts?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party under the rules [1].
What happens if a named nominee is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What happens if the result is not known by June 30, 2027?
The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Which source determines resolution?
The primary resolution source is the official results of the 2026 West Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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