This PredictPedia entry covers a contract on the margin of victory in the 2026 Virginia Senate election. The source describes the election as expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask who wins. It asks how large the gap is between the two leading candidates, measured in percentage points of valid votes. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each candidate's percentage is calculated by dividing that candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure uses an absolute difference, the direction of the win does not change the margin figure. Brackets are then separated by party, so a contract may specify that the Democratic Party candidate wins by a given range, or that the Republican Party candidate wins by a given range [1]. The rules define the party options narrowly. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. Names in the contract are included for trader convenience, according to the rules [1]. The resolution process has several specific steps. The market resolves on the official vote count once that count is made official, and the primary source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election. Credible reporting may also be used where there is an overwhelming consensus [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is certified [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's closing time, not a date on which results are known or certified. Boundary and tie rules also matter. If the reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, the contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two candidates tie for the most valid votes and both are listed, the contract resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If a listed candidate ties with an unlisted candidate, the contract resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. A tie between two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1]. The contract also has a fallback. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The price figures shown alongside this entry are a snapshot of market prices at one observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and trading volume does not indicate liquidity or the number of participants.

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