GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

Name: MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs
End: 2026-10-11T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$33.71K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

Vol

$33.71K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $33.71K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.71K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

29 markets tracked

Will Junior Caminero hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(29)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Junior Caminero hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	83%
Will Matt Olson hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	76%
Will Yordan Alvarez hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	71%
Will Hunter Goodman hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	52%
Will Ben Rice hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	51%
Will Pete Alonso hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	14%
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	8%
Will Colson Montgomery hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	8%
Will Jordan Walker hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	7%
Will Brandon Lowe hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	7%
Will Byron Buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Kazuma Okamoto hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Miguel Vargas hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Munetaka Murakami hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Wilson Contreras hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	4%
Will Dillon Dingler hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	4%
Will James Wood hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	4%
Will CJ Abrams hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	4%
Will Dansby Swanson hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	4%
Will Ketel Marte hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Nick Kurtz hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Andy Pages hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Mike Trout hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Manny Machado hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Aaron Judge hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Bryce Harper hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Juan Soto hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Christian Walker hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Shea Langeliers hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$33.71K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 11, 2026 (37 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $62.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.52)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Aaron Judge hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Junior Caminero hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Yordan Alvarez hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Shohei Ohtani hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ben Rice hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $317
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Hunter Goodman hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Byron Buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will James Wood hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Colson Montgomery hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Bryce Harper hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Shea Langeliers hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Brandon Lowe hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Pete Alonso hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $122
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Matt Olson hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Munetaka Murakami hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $543
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Nick Kurtz hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $263
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Dillon Dingler hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will CJ Abrams hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Christian Walker hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $390
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Kazuma Okamoto hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Miguel Vargas hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Jordan Walker hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $648
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Wilson Contreras hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $399
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Ketel Marte hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $393
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Juan Soto hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $360
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Mike Trout hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $681
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Manny Machado hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $272
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Andy Pages hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $130
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Dansby Swanson hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports