Name: Margin of victory in the Portugal Presidential election runoff?
End: 2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z

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Margin of victory in the Portugal Presidential election runoff? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

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Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?

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Cross-Platform Comparison(4)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?	0%	1%	0%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?	0%	1%	0%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?	0%	1%	0%
Will André Ventura win the second round?	0%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(9)

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About This Event

On Feb 8, 2026 If the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by António José Seguro minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind António José Seguro

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Margin of victory in the Portugal Presidential election runoff?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Feb 8, 2026

If the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by António José Seguro minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind António José Seguro 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.
 
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.04M
* **Total Liquidity:** $243.6K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.50)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (7 mkts) vs Kalshi (10 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $371.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $451.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $389.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will André Ventura win the second round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $299.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $18.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 45% and 50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 40% and 45%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 35% and 40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $12.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 30% and 35%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $16.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 25% and 30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $8.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 20% and 25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $308.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $565.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $576.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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KALSHIElections

Margin of victory in the Portugal Presidential election runoff?

Volume$82.81K

Markets10

POLYMARKETPolitics

Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate wil

Volume$2.96M

Markets7

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POLYMARKET

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 30% and 35%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 30% and 35%?

If the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff falls between 30% and 35%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/2jgeWf" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Margin of victory in the Portugal Presidential election runoff?"></iframe>

Margin of victory in the Portugal Presidential election runoff?

Margin of victory in the Portugal Presidential election runoff?

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Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

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Events (2)

Margin of victory in the Portugal Presidential election runoff?

Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round

Markets (4)

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 30% and 35%?

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 30% and 35%?

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 45% and 50%?

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 45% and 50%?

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 40% and 45%?

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 40% and 45%?

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 35% and 40%?

Will the margin of victory for António José Seguro in the Portugal presidential election runoff be between 35% and 40%?

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