Name: Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round
End: 2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z

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Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round | PredictPedia

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7 markets tracked

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?	Poly	100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?	Poly	0%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?	Poly	0%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?	Poly	0%
Will André Ventura win the second round?	Poly	0%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?	Poly	0%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.
 
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate wil

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.
 
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.96M
* **Total Liquidity:** $319.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $371.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $451.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $389.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will André Ventura win the second round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $299.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $309.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $565.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $576.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/2jgeWf" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round"></iframe>

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Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round

Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round

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Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round

Markets (4)

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?

Will André Ventura win the second round?

Will André Ventura win the second round?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?

Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?

Will André Ventura win the second round?

Will André Ventura win the second round?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

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