Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 12, 2026?

Name: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 12, 2026?
End: 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$45.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 12, 2026?

Vol

$45.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $45.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $45.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Poly	50%
Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Poly	50%
Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Poly	50%
Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be under 5.3?	Poly	50%
Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Poly	50%
Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Poly	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$45.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 12, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 12, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magn

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the biggest earthquake be on October 12, 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 13, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 12, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.

Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 12, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.

Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magn

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 12, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.

Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

T"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $45
* **Total Liquidity:** $7
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.45)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be under 5.3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the biggest earthquake on October 12, 2026 be 6.1 or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate