This prediction market asks whether Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado will physically enter Venezuelan territory before January 31, 2026. Machado is a prominent political figure who won the opposition's 2023 primary election but was subsequently banned from holding public office by the government of Nicolás Maduro. Her potential return to Venezuela is a significant political event because she currently resides outside the country, and her entry would test the government's enforcement of its ban and could trigger unpredictable political reactions. The market specifically defines a visit as entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela, excluding mere passage through its airspace or maritime zones. Interest in this question stems from ongoing political negotiations, international pressure on the Maduro government, and uncertainty about whether opposition figures can safely return ahead of potential future elections. The outcome could signal either a political opening or a hardening of positions within Venezuela's protracted crisis.

Historical Context

The question of opposition leaders returning to or being blocked from Venezuela has deep roots. A key precedent is the case of Leopoldo López, another prominent opposition figure. López was imprisoned in 2014 after leading anti-government protests. He was released to house arrest in 2017 and eventually fled to Spain in 2020 after seeking refuge in the Spanish embassy in Caracas. His experience illustrates the risks of imprisonment faced by opposition leaders under Maduro. The most recent presidential election in 2018 was widely condemned as illegitimate by the United States, European Union, and many Latin American nations, leading to a political standoff where opposition leader Juan Guaidó was recognized as interim president by dozens of countries. That election occurred with key opposition figures barred from running or in exile. The 2023 primary election, which Machado won, was an attempt by the opposition to unify behind a single candidate through a democratic process, but the government's subsequent disqualification of the winner repeated a pattern of pre-electoral exclusion. This history shows that the barrier to Machado's entry is not merely logistical but part of a long-standing political strategy.

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