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Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Name: Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.31M

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Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.31M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.31M

100%

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1 market tracked

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	Poly	28%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.91M
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.1K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 126.55)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $1.91M
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

15d 16h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

28¢

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Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

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Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

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Events (1)