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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

President of Andalusia after election?

Name: President of Andalusia after election?
End: 2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.88K

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Markets

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President of Andalusia after election?

Vol

$9.88K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.88K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.88K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	Poly	97%
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	Poly	2%
Will Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	Poly	1%
Will Manuel Gavira be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	Poly	1%
Will José Ignacio García be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$9.88K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** President of Andalusia after election?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 17, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count.

If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will José Ignacio García be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $917
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Manuel Gavira be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics