
Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
PM $2.01B · K 316.04M contracts
7
340
Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

PM $2.01B · K 316.04M contracts
7
340
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, J.D. Vance is priced at 43.8% on Polymarket and 42.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. VanceSame question, fine print differs | 43.8% | 42.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Marco RubioSame question, fine print differs | 14.6% | 17.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Gavin NewsomSame question, fine print differs | 16.3% | 17.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Alexandria Ocasio-CortezSame question, fine print differs | 16.4% | 13.5% | 2.9 pts |
| Jon OssoffSame question, fine print differs | 14.4% | 15.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Kamala HarrisSame question, fine print differs | 6.7% | 7.7% | 1.0 pts |
| Josh ShapiroSame question, fine print differs | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Pete ButtigiegSame question, fine print differs | 5% | 4.8% | 0.2 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $2.01B · K 316.04M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
340
Saved contracts
80
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
3
Same-question pairs
80
Largest saved gap: 2.9 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.


