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Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
Vol

PM $2.01B · K 316.04M contracts

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Events

7

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Markets

340

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, J.D. Vance is priced at 43.8% on Polymarket and 42.5% on Kalshi.

Outcome (Yes price)PolymarketKalshiGap
J.D. VanceSame question, fine print differs43.8%42.5%1.3 pts
Marco RubioSame question, fine print differs14.6%17.5%2.8 pts
Gavin NewsomSame question, fine print differs16.3%17.5%1.2 pts
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezSame question, fine print differs16.4%13.5%2.9 pts
Jon OssoffSame question, fine print differs14.4%15.5%1.1 pts
Kamala HarrisSame question, fine print differs6.7%7.7%1.0 pts
Josh ShapiroSame question, fine print differs5.5%4.5%1.0 pts
Pete ButtigiegSame question, fine print differs5%4.8%0.2 pts

Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $2.01B · K 316.04M contracts

Reported volume · provider units

340

Saved contracts

80

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will AOC announce her presidential candidacy?

When will AOC announce her presidential candidacy?

PM $67.8K · K 46.2K contracts

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?

Kalshi: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 57.5%Rules differK Yes 61.5%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?

Kalshi: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028?

Related contracts

PM Yes 27.5%Rules differK Yes 51.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jul 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

K 47.5K contracts
Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Yes 31%
Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Yes 14%
Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?Yes 12%
+30 moreNext deadline Nov 8, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

K 93.1K contracts
Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Yes 32.5%
Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Yes 21.5%
Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Yes 12.6%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 14, 2028 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

PM $1.22M
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes 43.1%
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes 23.2%
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes 14.6%
+68 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will run for president in 2028?

Who will run for president in 2028?

K 14.1K contracts
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?Yes 41%
Will Kanye West announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?Yes 33.5%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?Yes 28.5%
+16 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2028 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

PM $14.1K
Will Pete Buttigieg be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 29%
Will Rahm Emanuel be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 23.5%
Will Josh Shapiro be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 18.1%
+8 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2029 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

3

Same-question pairs

80

Largest saved gap: 2.9 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.