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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Highest temperature in Taipei on October 21?

Highest temperature in Taipei on October 21?
Vol

PM $94.46

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Events

1

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Markets

11

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $94.46

Reported volume · provider units

11

Saved contracts

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event has 11 Polymarket contracts, each asking whether the highest temperature in Taipei on October 21 falls in a specific bracket. The rules say the market "will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26" [1]. The source is Weather Underground, and the rules specify that the "Daily Observations" table is primary if it conflicts with the "Day High & Low" summary [1].

Resolution is whole degrees Celsius. If no data exists by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Revisions count until the first data point for the following date is published [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z, but the rules describe resolution timing differently, so the listed time should not be read as the moment the outcome is settled [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 06:09:06Z. These are snapshots, not current or executable quotes. The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this single Polymarket event, so no bracket was omitted by the sampling method [1].

Yes prices range from 0.0205 for "26°C or below" and "36°C or higher" to 0.345 for "32°C" and "33°C." The brackets 31°C (0.33), 30°C (0.28), 29°C (0.27), and 28°C (0.27) sit in the middle of the list. The 27°C bracket is at 0.125, and 34°C is at 0.08.

These Yes prices add up to roughly 2.11, not 1. Because the brackets are mutually exclusive, the snapshot therefore cannot be read as a set of calibrated probabilities. Each price should be read on its own terms. Different prices across brackets do not, by themselves, indicate an opportunity.

There is no second platform in this record, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show how many traders hold each position. Volume is not included in the analysis and would not measure liquidity here. The record does not show the observed temperature, any forecast, or any news. Whether the Songshan Airport data will be published on time, or whether a correction will be issued, cannot be determined from this evidence.

References

  1. Polymarket: Highest temperature in Taipei on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTC

Overview

This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking for the highest temperature in Taipei on October 21, 2026. The event is split into temperature brackets, each of which is a separate yes or no contract. The provider's rules say the market resolves to the bracket containing the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, measured in whole degrees Celsius [1]. The resolution source is Weather Underground's historical data page for that station, and the rules name that page as the source to check [1]. The rules also set out how a result is determined. If the data on that page conflicts with the summary figure shown in its Day High and Low section, the daily observations table is treated as the primary source [1]. If no data exists for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The market is set to resolve once the first data point for the following date is published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1]. Revisions made within the market's timeframe are considered until that first data point for the next date appears, after which later changes are not considered [1]. The rules also cover erroneous data. If the resolution source publishes a value that is clearly wrong because of a technical or operational error, or because of unauthorized interference, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release so the source can publish a correction [1]. If no correction appears in that period, the provider may issue a clarification on whether the original value can be used [1]. The saved event lists eleven bracket markets, covering 26 degrees Celsius or below, each whole degree from 27 to 35, and 36 degrees or higher [1]. Each market shows a Yes price and a No price. These are snapshots taken from the provider's data at the time it was observed. They are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities. A trading volume figure, where shown, does not measure liquidity or the number of participants. All eleven markets for this event are included in the sample, so the listed brackets are the full set the provider saved for this event. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. Taipei is the capital and a special municipality of Taiwan, located in northern Taiwan on the Taipei Basin [3]. The sources supplied for this entry do not describe the station's history or the local climate, so this article does not characterize typical October temperatures.

Why It Matters

The contract measures the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station on October 21, 2026, in whole degrees Celsius, as published on the named resolution source [1]. Each bracket is a separate contract, so a market for a single degree or a range resolves only if that bracket contains the recorded high [1]. Because the outcome depends on a specific station's published data and on the timing rules for revisions and missing data, the wording of the rules determines how the contract settles [1]. The Taipei context in the supplied background describes the city and its location but does not connect to the contract's terms [3].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

Which temperature determines the result?

The market resolves to the bracket containing the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on October 21, 2026, using the Weather Underground data for that station [1].

What happens if the summary and the daily table show different highs?

The rules say the Daily Observations table is the primary resolution source, not the Day High and Low summary section, if the two differ [1].

What happens if no data is available for the date?

If no data exists for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].

Are the prices the chance that a temperature will occur?

The prices are snapshots of the provider's Yes and No prices at the time of observation. The sources do not establish that they are verified probabilities, and they are not executable quotes [1].

Why does the market use whole degrees Celsius?

The rules state that the resolution source measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, so that level of precision is used when resolving the market [1].

Was this helpful?
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

0

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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