This prediction market topic concerns the potential capture of Stepnohirsk, a small town in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine, by Russian military forces by a specific deadline. The market resolves based on the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) daily interactive map, which visually represents territorial control in the conflict. For a 'Yes' resolution, the entire municipality of Stepnohirsk must be shaded red, indicating Russian control, on the ISW map by January 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The topic sits at the intersection of military strategy, geopolitical forecasting, and open-source intelligence, using a publicly vetted source as its definitive arbiter. Stepnohirsk is part of the broader southern front in the Russo-Ukrainian War, an area characterized by grinding, positional warfare where small settlements can become focal points for costly assaults. Recent Russian offensive operations in the summer and fall of 2024 have applied pressure across this sector, aiming to create a buffer zone and advance toward larger population centers. Interest in this specific market stems from its function as a measurable proxy for Russian offensive momentum in southern Ukraine, the credibility of the ISW as a data source, and the defined timeframe, which allows for concrete speculation on the pace of warfare over the coming year.

Historical Context

Stepnohirsk's strategic relevance is rooted in the broader Russian campaign to conquer southern Ukraine, which began with the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Russian forces captured much of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the regional capital Melitopol, in the first months of the war. However, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, while making limited gains near Robotyne and Verbove, failed to breach the main Russian defensive lines in the area, solidifying a front that has seen only incremental movement since. The town itself gained military significance following the collapse of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023. The subsequent draining of the Kakhovka Reservoir transformed the Dnipro River's left bank from a significant water obstacle into a more accessible, though muddy and complex, battlefield. This geographical change opened avenues for cross-river raids and made towns like Stepnohirsk, located inland from the river, more vulnerable to ground assault from Russian-held territory to the south and east. The fighting for Stepnohirsk is a continuation of the battle for the 'Vremivka salient,' an area Ukrainian forces have used to threaten Russian logistics lines toward Mariupol.

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