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$190.07K
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qua
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential capture of Stepnohirsk, a small town in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine, by Russian military forces by a specific deadline. The market resolves based on the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) daily interactive map, which visually represents territorial control in the conflict. For a 'Yes' resolution, the entire municipality of Stepnohirsk must be shaded red, indicating Russian control, on the ISW map by January 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The topic sits at the intersection of military strategy, geopolitical forecasting, and open-source intelligence, using a publicly vetted source as its definitive arbiter. Stepnohirsk is part of the broader southern front in the Russo-Ukrainian War, an area characterized by grinding, positional warfare where small settlements can become focal points for costly assaults. Recent Russian offensive operations in the summer and fall of 2024 have applied pressure across this sector, aiming to create a buffer zone and advance toward larger population centers. Interest in this specific market stems from its function as a measurable proxy for Russian offensive momentum in southern Ukraine, the credibility of the ISW as a data source, and the defined timeframe, which allows for concrete speculation on the pace of warfare over the coming year.
Stepnohirsk's strategic relevance is rooted in the broader Russian campaign to conquer southern Ukraine, which began with the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Russian forces captured much of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the regional capital Melitopol, in the first months of the war. However, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, while making limited gains near Robotyne and Verbove, failed to breach the main Russian defensive lines in the area, solidifying a front that has seen only incremental movement since. The town itself gained military significance following the collapse of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023. The subsequent draining of the Kakhovka Reservoir transformed the Dnipro River's left bank from a significant water obstacle into a more accessible, though muddy and complex, battlefield. This geographical change opened avenues for cross-river raids and made towns like Stepnohirsk, located inland from the river, more vulnerable to ground assault from Russian-held territory to the south and east. The fighting for Stepnohirsk is a continuation of the battle for the 'Vremivka salient,' an area Ukrainian forces have used to threaten Russian logistics lines toward Mariupol.
The battle for Stepnohirsk matters as a microcosm of the wider war's attritional character. Its capture would represent a minor but tangible Russian territorial gain, demonstrating an ability to advance despite heavy losses and fortified defenses. Such an outcome could boost Russian morale and propaganda, while posing tactical challenges for Ukrainian forces by potentially allowing Russian artillery to move closer to key Ukrainian supply routes. Conversely, a successful Ukrainian defense would underscore the resilience of their layered fortifications and the high cost Russia must pay for minimal gains. Beyond the immediate battlefield, the outcome influences geopolitical perceptions. A Russian capture could be framed by allies and adversaries as evidence of Moscow's persistent offensive capability, potentially affecting Western debates on military aid to Ukraine. For prediction markets and analysts, the result provides a clear data point on the velocity of territorial change, informing models about the likely course of the conflict over the subsequent months of 2026.
As of late 2024, the situation around Stepnohirsk is characterized by intense positional fighting. Russian forces, leveraging significant artillery and air-dropped glide bomb superiority, have been conducting persistent assault operations against Ukrainian defensive lines in the area. Open-source reports and the ISW map indicate that control is contested, with Russian forces likely having made incremental tactical advances into the town's outskirts or surrounding fields. However, Ukrainian forces maintain defensive positions and are conducting counter-drone and artillery operations to repel assaults. The ISW map has not, as of this reporting, shaded the entire Stepnohirsk municipality red, indicating it is not under full Russian control. The frontline in this sector remains active but largely static on a macro scale, with the battle for Stepnohirsk being one of several localized pressure points.
The ISW map is a daily updated, interactive online map that tracks assessed territorial control in the Russo-Ukrainian War. It is created by military analysts using open-source intelligence like geolocated combat footage and official reports. For this market, it serves as the sole, objective source for determining control of Stepnohirsk.
Stepnohirsk is a small urban settlement in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast of southeastern Ukraine. It is situated on the left (south) bank of the Dnipro River, inland from the riverbank, and is part of the Vasylivka Raion. Its location places it on the southern front line of the conflict.
While not a major city, capturing Stepnohirsk would allow Russian forces to secure a firmer foothold on the Dnipro's left bank, threaten Ukrainian positions further west, and incrementally advance their goal of securing all of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It is part of a broader strategy to create a buffer zone and grind down Ukrainian defenses.
The market uses a specific, binary definition based on the ISW map. Stepnohirsk is considered 'captured' only if the entire geographical area of the municipality is shaded in the color red on the specified ISW map by the deadline. Partial shading or control does not count.
The market terms specify resolution based on the map state by the deadline. Typically, prediction market resolvers would use the most recent map update published before 11:59 PM ET on January 15, 2026. If the ISW ceased publishing, resolvers would designate an alternative authoritative source based on the market's governing rules.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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