
Grammy nominees: Song of the Year
PM $45.5K · K 86.0K contracts
7
74
Grammy nominees: Song of the Year

PM $45.5K · K 86.0K contracts
7
74
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, Choosin’ Texas is priced at 76.5% on Polymarket and 78.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Choosin’ TexasSame question, fine print differs | 76.5% | 78.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Somewhere Over LaredoSame question, fine print differs | 13% | 12.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Be HerSame question, fine print differs | 3.5% | 6.5% | 3.0 pts |
| I Knew It, I Knew YouSame question, fine print differs | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.2 pts |
| The FallSame question, fine print differs | 1.2% | 2% | 0.8 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $45.5K · K 86.0K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
74
Saved contracts
5
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
2027 If X has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Grammys. Any references to the Grammys, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Grammys and Kalshi. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether each named song has been nominated for Song of the Year. The rule states: "If X has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each song is its own binary contract, and the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The source lists the provider status as active and states that the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The market records show an endDate of 2027-11-01T15:00:00.000Z for each included contract, but that field is a platform timestamp, not an announced event date or a confirmed resolution time. The event title refers to "2026 Grammy nominees," while the rule text refers to the "69th Grammy Awards." Readers should check the full rule wording before assuming which ceremony a contract covers.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-13T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 03:22:31Z, so they describe that moment and may no longer match current quotes. The sample includes 12 of 31 markets in the saved provider event [1]. It was selected by Yes price, highest first, then volume, so the excluded contracts are not shown and their prices cannot be inferred from the sample.
Among the included contracts, the highest Yes prices are 0.93 for "I Knew It, I Knew You" and "Man I Need," 0.91 for "the cure," 0.88 for "Choosin' Texas," and 0.875 for "WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!" [1]. Several others are listed at 0.50 Yes and 0.50 No, including "Risk It All," "Hit the Wall," and "Zoo" [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Trading volume is also not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders, and the evidence does not say how many traders are involved.
Different prices across contracts do not, by themselves, show an arbitrage opportunity, since each contract has its own wording and the sample is limited to one provider event.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, does not indicate current nominations or news, and does not establish how accurate these markets have been. It also does not supply a confirmed close time. The sample is partial, so readers should not treat it as the full field of songs or infer the ranking of omitted contracts.
References
- Kalshi: Grammy nominees: Song of the Year. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether a specific song will be nominated for Song of the Year at a Grammy Awards ceremony. The supplied Kalshi rule states that if the named song "has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The market closes and expires early if that event occurs [1]. The contract rules also state that the market is not endorsed by the Grammys, and that references to the Grammys are descriptive only [1]. The provider lists the event as active and does not supply a listed end time [1]. The market end date of November 1, 2027 appears in the contract data, but the supplied rules do not describe it as an announced ceremony date, so it should be read only as a contract field. The Song of the Year award is one of the Grammy Awards' general field categories. The Wikipedia excerpt describes it as one of the four most prestigious categories at the awards [2]. According to that excerpt, the award is meant "to honor artistic achievement, technical proficiency and overall excellence in the recording industry, without regard to album sales or chart position" [2]. For a nomination-based contract, this means the question concerns recognition by the awards process rather than commercial performance. The supplied market snapshot was observed at 2026-10-13T03:00:06Z and retrieved shortly after [1]. Each listed market shows Yes and No prices. These are snapshot values at observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be read as the price at any later moment.
Historical Context
The Grammy Awards ceremony was established in 1958 and was originally called the Gramophone Awards [2]. The Song of the Year award has been presented annually since the 1st Grammy Awards in 1959 [2]. This is historical background only and does not describe the current status of the 69th Grammy Awards or any present-day nomination.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, binary outcome: whether the named song receives a nomination for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards [1]. Because the rule concerns nomination rather than winning, the market's resolution depends on the nominee list rather than the final award. The Grammy Award for Song of the Year is described as recognizing overall excellence without regard to album sales or chart position [2], which helps explain what the category rewards, though it does not predict which songs will be nominated. The market sample is partial. Of 31 markets in the saved Kalshi event, 12 are included, selected by highest finite Yes price, then volume [1]. Prices among included markets range from about 0.5 to about 0.93 at observation time. Several included markets show identical 0.5 prices, and the sample does not show the prices of the 19 omitted markets, so no conclusion about omitted songs should be drawn. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or number of traders, and differing prices between contracts do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the contract to resolve Yes?
The contract resolves Yes if the named song has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards [1].
Does the market close early?
Yes. The market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Is the contract endorsed by the Grammys?
No. The contract rules state that the market and its products have not been endorsed by the Grammys, and that references to the Grammys are descriptive only [1].
What does the Song of the Year award recognize?
The Wikipedia excerpt describes the award as meant to honor artistic achievement, technical proficiency and overall excellence in the recording industry, without regard to album sales or chart position [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Who will have a top 20 song this year?
K 107.2K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
2
Same-question pairs
5
Largest saved gap: 3.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

