
Grammy nominees: Album of the Year
PM $125.8K · K 185.2K contracts
6
79
Grammy nominees: Album of the Year

PM $125.8K · K 185.2K contracts
6
79
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love is priced at 44% on Polymarket and 46.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| you seem pretty sad for a girl so in loveSame question, fine print differs | 44% | 46.5% | 2.5 pts |
| LuxSame question, fine print differs | 25% | 30% | 5.0 pts |
| The Art of LovingSame question, fine print differs | 17% | 17.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Lost WeekendSame question, fine print differs | 6% | 2% | 4.0 pts |
| The Great DivideSame question, fine print differs | 1.4% | 5.5% | 4.1 pts |
| DandelionSame question, fine print differs | 1.8% | 3.5% | 1.7 pts |
| The Life of a ShowgirlSame question, fine print differs | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.4 pts |
| ArirangSame question, fine print differs | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $125.8K · K 185.2K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
79
Saved contracts
15
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
2027 If X has been nominated for Album of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Grammys. Any references to the Grammys, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Grammys and Kalshi. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether each named album will be nominated for Album of the Year. The rules state: "If X has been nominated for Album of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each included market is phrased as "2026 Grammy nominees for Album of the Year?" with a different album name in parentheses. The title refers to 2026, while the rules text refers to the 69th Grammy Awards, so readers should check the full contract wording before treating the title alone as the resolution basis.
The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs." [1] The excerpt lists the end time as "not supplied," but every included market carries an end date field of 2027-11-01T15:00:00.000Z. That field is a listed close time in the saved data, not an announced event date, and it does not establish when a nomination will be announced.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this event at 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T07:23:06.678Z. These are snapshot times, so the prices describe that moment and not live conditions.
Within this sample, the Yes prices range from 0.95 for the first market shown to 0.29 for the "petal" market. Prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Trading volume is also not reported here, so it cannot be read as liquidity or as a count of traders.
The sample includes 12 of 28 markets in the saved event, selected by Yes price in descending order. Markets outside the sample are not shown, and their prices should not be assumed to be lower. Each market should be compared only with the others in this same event. Prices from different contracts or platforms should not be averaged or ranked together.
What remains uncertain
The saved data does not explain why any price is where it is, and this analysis does not offer a reason. The excerpt also contains no news about nominations, no information about the timing of the 69th Grammy Awards beyond the rule wording, and no record of how similar markets have performed. Because the market can close early if the event occurs, the listed end date may not reflect the actual close. Readers should consult the current provider page and full rules before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Grammy nominees: Album of the Year. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether a specific artist or album will be nominated for Album of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards. The rules state that if X has been nominated for Album of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The contract also says it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The provider lists the event as active, but the excerpt does not supply a listed end time [1]. The Grammy Award for Album of the Year is presented by the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences of the United States. According to the background source, the award is meant to "honor artistic achievement, technical proficiency and overall excellence in the recording industry, without regard to album sales, chart position, or critical reception" [2]. The source describes it as the most prestigious category at the Grammy Awards [2]. The market data in this snapshot shows separate contracts under the same event, each naming a different album in its title. Each contract carries an end date field of 2027-11-01 in the provider data [1]. That field is a provider record and should not be read as an announced nomination date or as the date the nominations will be revealed. The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-28T06:00:06Z, so the prices described below reflect that moment only. The Yes prices for the included albums range from 0.29 to 0.95 in this sample, with the highest at 0.95 and the lowest included at 0.29 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Trading volume is not included in this description and should not be read as liquidity or a count of participants. The sample covers 12 of 28 markets in this provider event, so the included set does not represent the full field. Prices from this event should not be compared with prices from any other event.
Historical Context
The background source states that the Grammy Award for Album of the Year has been presented annually since the 1st Annual Grammy Awards in 1959, alongside Best New Artist, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year [2]. The contract refers to the 69th Grammy Awards [1], so the market concerns a later ceremony in that series.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single binary outcome: whether a named album or artist appears among the nominees for Album of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards [1]. Because the rules only refer to a nomination, the contract does not depend on the eventual winner. The background source notes that the award is among the most prestigious categories and is given for artistic achievement rather than sales or chart performance [2]. Traders using these contracts are therefore pricing the chance of a nomination, not the chance of winning.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event does the contract depend on?
The contract depends on whether X has been nominated for Album of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards [1].
Does a win determine the outcome?
No. The contract resolves to Yes on a nomination for Album of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards [1]. The background source describes the category as one of the general field categories presented annually [2], but the rules do not refer to a winner.
Why might the market close early?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Is the end date the date nominations are announced?
Not from this evidence. The provider lists an end date of 2027-11-01 for these contracts [1], but a date in contract data is not an announced event date. The excerpt also states that no listed end time was supplied [1].
Does a lower price mean an album is less likely to be nominated?
Not necessarily. The prices are snapshot values from one provider event and are not verified probabilities. The sample includes only 12 of 28 markets, so prices cannot be compared against omitted markets [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
4
Same-question pairs
15
Largest saved gap: 5.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
