What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?
PM $22.3K
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1
What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?
PM $22.3K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is ↓ 30 at 12%.
Polymarket
- ↓ 3012%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $22.3K
Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Polymarket event is titled "What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?" [1]. The single market in the snapshot is narrower: "Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 in 2026?" The event title uses "hit" and the market title uses "dip to 30," so readers should check the market wording rather than assume the event title describes the full contract. The evidence does not include the full resolution rules, so it cannot confirm how a "dip" or "hit" would be judged.
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution. The evidence does not show whether or how the market resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:46:40.332Z [1]. These are two different times, and both describe a past point relative to any later reading. The market status recorded at retrieval was active [1].
The snapshot shows a Yes price of 0.12 and a No price of 0.88 [1]. These are observed prices at the observation time, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, bid and ask depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
The coverage record lists one market in the saved event, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. Even so, the sample warning states that the saved markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. No other outcomes or thresholds appear in this snapshot, so no comparison across price levels or other platforms is supported.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Yes price stood at 0.12 at the observation time, and it contains no recent news or other events that would account for it. It also does not show the resolution criteria in full, any resolution outcome, or whether prices have changed since the observation. Any comparison with other contracts or platforms would require their own rules, close times, and observation times, which are not supplied here.
References
- Polymarket: What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's saved Polymarket event asks: "What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?" [1]. The event contains one market, "Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 in 2026?", with Yes and No outcomes [1]. The provider lists the event as active, with a listed end time of 2027-01-01 05:00 UTC [1]. That is the contract's listed closing time, not an announced event date, and the provider's rules for resolving the market are not in the supplied material. The available evidence does not describe how the Bitcoin Volatility Index is calculated, who publishes it, or which data source would settle the market. For that reason, this article cannot explain the index's methodology. It can only describe the contract as the provider titles it. The market is a binary question about a single threshold. It asks whether the index will dip to 30 during 2026, as the market title puts it [1]. Because the saved event includes only this one market, it does not show how other threshold levels or outcomes were priced.
Historical Context
Bitcoin is described as the first decentralized cryptocurrency. It was invented in 2008, when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, and its use as a currency began in 2009 with the release of its open-source implementation [2]. The same source notes that El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender from 2021 to 2025 before revoking it [2]. This history concerns bitcoin itself, not the volatility index, which the supplied sources do not describe.
Why It Matters
The contract concerns a volatility measure for bitcoin rather than the bitcoin price directly. The title asks whether the Bitcoin Volatility Index will reach or dip to the level of 30 during 2026 [1]. Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that uses distributed ledger, or blockchain, technology [2][3], which is the asset context for any index tied to it. A market like this lets people express a view on whether bitcoin volatility, as measured by this index, will fall to that threshold within the stated period. The current price on the provider page is a snapshot of one moment and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the price on this market show the likelihood that the index will dip to 30?
No. The price in the saved snapshot reflects the market at one observation time and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1].
When does this contract end?
The provider lists an end time of 2027-01-01 05:00 UTC, even though the market title refers to 2026 [1]. The listed end time is a closing time from the contract data, not an announced event.
What is bitcoin?
Bitcoin is described as the first decentralized cryptocurrency, invented in 2008 and used as a currency from 2009 [2]. Cryptocurrency is a type of digital asset that uses distributed ledger, or blockchain, technology [3].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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