Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will?

Total Volume

$2.25K

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Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.25K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.25K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Slaughter

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Slaughter	Kalshi	86%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

Top Probability

$2.25K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before August 2027 If the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935) such that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will, after Issuance and before the August 1, 2027. The market resolves

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before August 2027

If the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935) such that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will, after Issuance and before the August 1, 2027. The market resolves

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision overruling "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $645.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Slaughter
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

86¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/2sy-Ix" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will?"></iframe>

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Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will?

Will the Supreme Court let Trump fire FTC Commissioners at will?

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Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Slaughter

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)