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GroupPOLYMARKET

Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 28?

Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 28?
Vol

PM $4.0K

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Events

1

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Markets

11

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 36°C at 55.5%.

Polymarket

  1. 36°C55.5%
  2. 37°C34%
  3. 35°C9%
  4. 34°C1.6%
  5. 38°C1.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $4.0K

Reported volume · provider units

11

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at King Abdulaziz International Airport (OEJN) on 28 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for King Abdulaziz International Airport (OEJN) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for King Abdulaziz International Airport (OEJN) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=OEJN&format=raw&date=2026-10-29T00:00:00Z&hours=30

Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event asks which temperature range will contain the highest temperature reported at King Abdulaziz International Airport (OEJN) on 28 October 2026 [1]. Only routine METAR observations count. Reports beginning with SPECI do not count [1]. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with exact halves rounded up, and that whole value determines the bracket [1]. The rules also specify fallback sources and a seven-day window for corrections in cases of clearly erroneous data [1].

The rules and the listed end time do not fully match. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z [1]. The rule text instead says the market resolves at the issuance of the first METAR for the following day, or by 11:59 PM ET on that day, whichever comes first [1]. Readers should treat the listed end time as a provider field and rely on the rule text for timing.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z, and this report was retrieved at 2026-10-26T07:07:06.428Z [1]. These are historical snapshots, not current quotes, and they are not executable prices.

The saved event contains 11 markets, all included [1]. The Yes prices are as follows. The 37°C bracket is 0.34. The 33°C, 34°C, 35°C, 36°C, 38°C, 39°C, and 40°C or higher brackets are each 0.23. The 32°C bracket is 0.04. The 31°C and 30°C or below brackets are each 0.0205 [1].

These Yes prices sum to about 2.03 across the saved brackets, so they do not form a normalized distribution of probabilities. Readers should not read any single price as a verified probability. Because the brackets are mutually exclusive, the gap from a sum of 1 is not a trading opportunity by itself, since prices are only snapshots.

What remains uncertain

The sample warning states that the saved markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The sample is complete for this saved event, but no conclusion should be drawn about omitted brackets.

The source does not explain why prices are where they are, and this report does not offer a reason. The provider's volume and trader counts are not included, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold a view. The evidence also does not show the observed temperature for the date, which remains undetermined in the supplied material.

References

  1. Polymarket: Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 28?. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTC

Overview

This entry covers the PredictPedia weather contract titled "Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 28?", which is listed in the Climate category [1]. The contract's rules tie it to King Abdulaziz International Airport (OEJN) in Jeddah and to the highest temperature reported there on 28 October 2026 [1]. The saved event contains eleven bracket markets. Each asks whether that highest temperature will fall in a specific whole-degree Celsius range, running from 30°C or below through 40°C or higher [1]. The provider snapshot was observed at 2026-10-26T06:00:06Z, when the event was listed as active with a listed end time of 2026-10-28T12:00:00Z [1]. The 28 October date in the rules identifies the observation date. It is not evidence that any temperature has been recorded yet. Jeddah is the largest city in Mecca Province and the second-largest city in Saudi Arabia after Riyadh. It sits on the Red Sea coast in the Hejaz region [3]. The airport named in the contract is therefore a single station in a major coastal city, and the contract does not measure the city as a whole. The contract defines the qualifying value narrowly. It is the highest temperature in the hourly temperature remark of any routine METAR observation for OEJN on the observation date [1]. Special observations, whose report lines begin with SPECI, do not count [1]. The hourly remark is a group beginning with the letter T followed by eight digits. The first digit gives the sign, the next three give the temperature in tenths of a degree Celsius, and the following four give the dew point, which the rules do not use [1]. If a routine observation lacks that remark, the rules fall back to the temperature group in the body of the report, which is given in whole degrees [1]. An observation counts only if its timestamp, converted to the station's local time including any daylight-saving shift, falls on the observation date [1]. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, and a value ending in exactly half is rounded up to the next higher whole degree. That rounded figure determines the bracket [1]. The rules give examples: 13.9°C counts as 14°C, 16.5°C counts as 17°C, and -8.5°C counts as -8°C [1]. The market resolves when the first METAR for the station on the following day is issued, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. Corrections count whether or not they are marked COR, and changes are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published [1]. If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by that deadline, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has published enough data to determine a temperature, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. If a source publishes clearly erroneous data caused by technical or operational error, or by unauthorized interference, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days (ET) awaiting a correction. If no correction appears, Polymarket may issue a Clarification [1]. Each bracket shows a Yes and a No price in the saved snapshot [1]. These are provider snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the volume figures should not be read as a measure of liquidity or of how many people traded.

Historical Context

The supplied sources do not describe a history of this contract or of past temperatures at OEJN. The Wikipedia list of weather records notes that the records it covers are the officially observed values, and that it excludes remotely sensed observations such as satellite measurements [2]. That general description does not set this contract's rules. For city background, Jeddah's prominence grew in 647 CE, when Caliph Uthman of the Rashidun Caliphate designated it as the main port serving travelers to Mecca [3].

Why It Matters

The contract measures one number: the highest temperature reported at a single airport station on a single date, as recorded in routine METAR observations under the rules described above [1]. Because it uses whole-degree brackets, the outcome depends on how the station's reports are read and rounded, not only on the underlying weather. The rules also specify how special observations, corrections, missing data, and erroneous data are handled [1]. Anyone reading the contract's prices should check these definitions first, since a market on the same city can resolve differently if it uses a different station, date, or source [1].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

Which station and date does the contract use?

The contract uses King Abdulaziz International Airport (OEJN) and the observation date of 28 October 2026 [1].

Do special weather observations count?

No. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Routine observations, including those issued off the nominal hour, do count [1].

How is a temperature such as 16.5°C handled?

The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, and a value ending in exactly half is rounded up. Under the rules, 16.5°C counts as 17°C [1].

What happens if the primary source has no usable data?

If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine temperature observation for the date by the deadline, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has enough data, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].

Are corrected observations considered?

Yes. The rules say the report the resolution source shows for a given observation time counts whether or not it is marked as a correction, and changes are considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published [1].

Is the Wikipedia list of weather records the resolution source?

No. The contract names the routine observations for OEJN as its resolution source [1]. The Wikipedia list describes official record values in general terms and does not govern this contract [2].

Was this helpful?
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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