Name: Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Higher Strikes for Tisza)
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

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Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Higher Strikes for Tisza) | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $757.35K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $757.35K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?	Poly	94%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?	Poly	5%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?	Poly	2%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?	Poly	0%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?	Poly	0%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

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94%

Top Probability

$757.35K

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About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference betwee

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Higher Strikes for Tisza)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. 

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference betwee

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. 

This market will resolve according to the margin of victo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $757.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $110.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.85)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $156.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $230.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $42.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $196.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $104.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $26.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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