GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Name: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
End: 2026-09-30T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$784.49K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Vol

$784.49K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $784.49K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $784.49K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Poly	32%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Poly	20%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

32%

Top Probability

$784.49K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit cal

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 30, 2026 (25 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit cal

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."

Transit calls include container, dry"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $123.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.39)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $120.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics