Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event asks for the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas" [1]. Certified votes for candidates or non-candidate options are included, while "Invalidated or blank votes are not included" [1].

The primary resolution source is the official certified results "as published by the state electoral authority," though "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. If a value falls exactly on a boundary, the market resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time for trading, not the date results will be certified.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T20:52:04.207Z [1]. These values describe that earlier observation and are not live quotes.

The eight saved brackets show these Yes prices: 900,000 to 975,000 at 0.685; 825,000 to 900,000 at 0.13; 975,000 to 1,050,000 at 0.085; 1,050,000 or more at 0.0865; 750,000 to 825,000 at 0.0275; 675,000 to 750,000 at 0.0055; under 600,000 at 0.0045; and 600,000 to 675,000 at 0.0005 [1].

These Yes prices sum to about 1.014, so they should not be read as normalized probabilities. The snapshot does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved. The evidence also does not explain why prices are where they are.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes all eight markets saved for this event, and the metadata marks it as not partial. The sample warning still says the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Nothing here shows that an unlisted bracket has any particular price.

All markets come from one provider and one event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The evidence contains no certified results or reporting on the election, so the resolution outcome is unknown.

References

1. Polymarket: Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.