Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers the Polymarket event "Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory" [1]. Each margin contract resolves to the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees represent the options, and independent candidates do not count as either party [1]. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].

The saved event includes ten markets: nine Republican margin brackets and one contract on whether the Democratic Party candidate wins [1]. These are separate contracts with different wording, so their prices should not be merged or compared as if they answered the same question.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source retrieval time is 2026-10-15T23:21:54.596Z [1]. These values describe when the data was captured, not the current market state. The prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

Among the Yes prices, the Republican 10%-15% bracket is highest at 0.3295, followed by the 15%-20% bracket at 0.23 [1]. The Democratic win contract shows a Yes price of 0.0555 [1]. All ten saved markets were included, and the partial sample flag is false [1]. The source also notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].

The nine Republican bracket Yes prices sum to about 1.12, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution. The supplied data includes no volume figures, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.

What remains uncertain

Each market lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The source says the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. Resolution uses the official results published by the state electoral authority, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the vote is official, the market stays open until the recount ends [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a resolution rule, not an announced event.

The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no news or trader-agreement data. Differences in price between contracts are not, by themselves, an arbitrage opportunity.

References

1. Polymarket: Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.