Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies: #1 search
PM $33.5K · K 13.2K contracts
2
24
Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies: #1 search
PM $33.5K · K 13.2K contracts
2
24
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is The Odyssey at 92.5%, and on Kalshi it is Obsession at 43.5%.
Polymarket
- The Odyssey92.5%
- Obsession89%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day73.5%
- Backrooms54.5%
- Michael50%
Kalshi
- Obsession43.5%
- The Odyssey34.5%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day11%
- One Battle After Another4%
- Michael2.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $33.5K · K 13.2K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
24
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Before Jan 2027 If X is the #1 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies is not published during 2026, then all markets will resolve to NO. This market resolves based on the individuals ranked in the "Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies" section of Google’s official Year in Search 2026 – Global list. Google’s report includes multiple sections such as Searches, News, Passings, and People — only the "Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies" section applies to this event. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Google. Any references Google, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Google and Kalshi. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two provider events ask related but different questions about Google's Year in Search 2026 Global Movies list. The Kalshi event asks which title is the #1 search. Its rules say the market resolves to Yes if X is the #1 search on the list in 2026, and that if the list is not published during 2026, "all markets will resolve to NO" [1]. The Polymarket event asks whether a title ranks in the Top 5. It resolves "Yes" if the listed movie is ranked in the Top 5, and if Google does not release the list "by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."" [2]
The listed close times also differ. Kalshi's markets show an end date of 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z, and no event end time is supplied [1]. Polymarket lists 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z for both its markets and its event [2]. These are listed close times, not confirmed resolution dates.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 12:00:06 UTC on October 29, 2026, and retrieved at 14:42:13 UTC the same day. They describe that moment only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
In the Kalshi sample, Yes prices for #1 range from 0.445 for Obsession to 0.33 for The Odyssey, 0.115 for Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and 0.015 for several titles [1]. In the Polymarket sample, Top 5 Yes prices include 0.925 for The Odyssey, 0.885 for Obsession, and 0.70 for Spider-Man: Brand New Day [2]. These are different questions, so the figures should not be averaged or ranked together. A higher Top 5 price on Polymarket says nothing about a title's #1 price on Kalshi.
Within each event, the snapshot shows only the relative order of the listed prices. Where several Kalshi titles share 0.015, the records do not separate them further. Volume is not a liquidity measure or a count of traders, and the records do not establish either.
What remains uncertain
The Kalshi sample is partial: 12 of 13 markets were included [1]. The price of the omitted market is unknown from this evidence, so no conclusion about it should be drawn. The Polymarket sample includes all 11 markets in its saved event [2]. Neither sample represents the full field of eligible films.
The evidence does not show whether Google has published the 2026 list, and the excerpts do not explain why prices sit where they do. Different prices across contracts are not an arbitrage opportunity by themselves, because the wording, close times, and resolution conditions differ.
References
- Kalshi: Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies: #1 search. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z.
- Polymarket: Top 5 Most Searched Movies on Google 2026. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
Google publishes an annual Year in Search report that ranks the most searched topics in several categories. One category, Movies, is the basis for two prediction-market contracts tracked on PredictPedia. The Kalshi contract asks whether a named title will be the #1 entry in the Global Movies section of Google's Year in Search 2026 report [1]. The Polymarket contract asks whether a named title will rank in the Top 5 of the same Global Movies list for 2026 [2]. The Kalshi rules say the market resolves to Yes if the named title is #1 on that list in 2026. If the Movies list is not published during 2026, all markets in that event resolve to No [1]. The rules also state that only the Movies section applies, and that other sections of Google's report, such as Searches, News, Passings, and People, do not count toward this event [1]. The Polymarket rules use a similar structure with a Top 5 threshold. That contract resolves to Yes if the listed movie is in the Top 5 and to No otherwise. It also sets a deadline: if Google does not release the list by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No [2]. The rules describe the resolution source as the list as published by Google, and they note that the list is expected to appear on Google's Trends Year in Search hub with the location set to Global [2]. These rules show when each contract can settle, but they do not establish when Google will publish the 2026 list. The contract dates are rule parameters, not announced publication dates. Where a contract lists an end date, that date is a settlement or closing parameter. The Polymarket rules say the market may resolve as soon as the list is released [2], and the Kalshi rules say the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Why It Matters
Both contracts measure a single category of Google's annual search report. The Kalshi contract measures whether a title finishes first in the Movies section, which is a narrower outcome than the Polymarket contract, which measures whether a title finishes in the Top 5 [1][2]. Because the two events use different thresholds, their prices answer different questions and should not be read as a direct comparison of the same outcome. The contracts also depend on publication. The Kalshi rules specify that if the Movies list is not published during 2026, all markets resolve to No [1]. The Polymarket rules set a March 31, 2027 deadline for release before a No resolution [2]. Anyone reading the prices should keep in mind that a contract's outcome depends on both the ranking and whether Google publishes the list in time. The prices shown in the market data are snapshots at the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Volume figures are not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders. The Kalshi sample includes 12 of 13 markets in its saved event, so it is a partial sample, and the omitted market cannot be assumed to have any particular price. The Polymarket sample includes all 11 markets in its saved event [2]. Rankings should not be combined across the two events, because they reflect different provider contracts with different thresholds.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Kalshi contract require for a Yes resolution?
The Kalshi contract resolves to Yes if the named title is the #1 rank on Google's Year in Search 2026 Global Movies list [1]. Only the Movies section applies, and other sections of the report do not count [1].
What does the Polymarket contract require for a Yes resolution?
The Polymarket contract resolves to Yes if the listed movie is ranked in the Top 5 of Google's official Year in Search Global Movies list for 2026 [2]. The rules say the list is the resolution source as published by Google [2].
What happens if Google does not publish the list?
For the Kalshi contract, if Google's Movies list is not published during 2026, all markets resolve to No [1]. For the Polymarket contract, if the list is not released by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No [2].
Why are the prices for these two events not directly comparable?
The two events ask different questions. One requires a #1 rank and the other requires a Top 5 rank [1][2]. The prices are also snapshots rather than executable quotes, so a difference between contracts is not by itself an opportunity to trade.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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