When will the government be fully funded? | PredictPedia

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Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in no lapse in federal appropriations on January 31, 2026 at 12:01am, for all twelve appropriations bills become law before Feb 15, 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 4, 2026?	Kalshi	99%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the government be fully funded?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment has become law before Feb X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For example, a continuing resolution that funds the Department of Homeland Security at current levels satisfies the requirement for the Homeland Security appropriations component. The bill must pass the full chamber, not just committee, for House or Senate passage. For 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment has become law before Feb 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For example, a continuing resolution that funds the Department of"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.17M
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.18M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2026): Vol $382.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in no lapse in federal appropriations on January 31, 2026 at 12:01am, for all twelve appropriations bills become law before Feb 15, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 16, 2026): Vol $361.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2026): Vol $1.42M
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

99¢

Kalshi

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When will the government be fully funded?

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Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?

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Events (1)

When will the government be fully funded?

Markets (3)

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in no lapse in federal appropriations on January 31, 2026 at 12:01am, for all twelve appropriations bills become law before Feb 15, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in no lapse in federal appropriations on January 31, 2026 at 12:01am, for all twelve appropriations bills become law before Feb 15, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 4, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 4, 2026?

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Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the government be fully funded?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 5, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in no lapse in federal appropriations on January 31, 2026 at 12:01am, for all twelve appropriations bills become law before Feb 15, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in no lapse in federal appropriations on January 31, 2026 at 12:01am, for all twelve appropriations bills become law before Feb 15, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 4, 2026?

Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the government being fully funded for all twelve appropriations bills the next day as of enactment become law before Feb 4, 2026?

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