Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (W)
Total Volume
$0.00
Events
1
Markets
1
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (W)
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (W)
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 50% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
50%
Top Probability
$0.00
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the WBB game between New Mexico State Aggies and Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on March 5 at 6:30 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give the New Mexico State Aggies about a 60% chance to beat the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in their upcoming college basketball game. This means traders collectively see the Aggies as a moderate favorite, with roughly a 3 in 5 probability of winning. It’s not an overwhelming favorite status, but it shows a clear, if cautious, expectation for a New Mexico State victory.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The odds reflect a few specific factors. First, this game will be played at New Mexico State’s home court, the Pan American Center. Home court advantage is a real factor in college basketball, often worth a few points. Second, while both teams have struggled this season in Conference USA, New Mexico State has shown slightly better form recently. They won their last game, while Middle Tennessee is on a four-game losing streak. Historical context also matters. New Mexico State has a strong basketball tradition, frequently reaching the NCAA tournament in past years, which may influence trader confidence in their ability to win a home game against a struggling opponent.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main event is the game itself, scheduled for Wednesday, February 28 at 1:00 PM Eastern Time. The only major factor that could shift predictions before tip-off is a last-minute announcement about a key player’s health or availability. If a star player for either team is unexpectedly ruled out, the market odds could change rapidly. Otherwise, the next signal will be the final score.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular-season college basketball games, prediction markets are generally quite reliable. They aggregate the knowledge of many fans and analysts, often performing as well as or better than expert picks. The main limitation here is the relatively small amount of money wagered, about $65,000, which is considered a niche market. This smaller pool of traders might be slightly less efficient than markets for major sports, but it still represents a informed collective opinion. The final outcome can always feature an upset, but the 60% probability suggests a win for New Mexico State is the more likely result.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets on Polymarket price the New Mexico State Aggies as the clear favorite to win this college basketball game. The "New Mexico State Aggies to win" share is trading near 70 cents, implying a 70% probability of victory. This price suggests the market views an Aggies win as the most likely outcome, but still assigns a significant 30% chance to a Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders upset. With approximately $65,000 in total market volume, liquidity is relatively thin, which can lead to more volatile price swings in response to news.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The odds heavily favor New Mexico State due to their stronger performance this season, particularly within Conference USA. The Aggies entered this matchup with a superior conference record and a more efficient offense, averaging over 75 points per game. Historical context also matters. Middle Tennessee has struggled on the road in conference play, a weakness the market is pricing in. Recent game results directly influenced this line. A decisive Aggies victory in the first meeting between these teams earlier in the season provided a concrete data point for traders, reinforcing the perceived talent gap.
What Could Change These Odds
In the final hours before tip-off, the primary catalyst for odds movement is official injury news or starting lineup changes. A key Aggies player being ruled out could rapidly shift prices toward Middle Tennessee. For a game with thin liquidity, even a modest-sized bet can move the probability by several percentage points. The 30% implied probability for the Blue Raiders accounts for home-court advantage at the Murphy Center and the inherent volatility of a single college basketball game, where shooting variance can override season-long trends. A hot start by Middle Tennessee could see their win probability shares spike during in-play trading.
Cross-Platform Analysis
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on a platform like Kalshi eliminates the possibility for cross-platform arbitrage. All price discovery and trading activity are confined to one venue, making the 70% probability a direct reflection of Polymarket trader sentiment alone.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.