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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

US military draft authorized in 2026?

US military draft authorized in 2026?
Vol

PM $545.4K

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Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 2.9% on Polymarket.

Polymarket

  1. Yes2.9%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $545.4K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

PM $1.81M
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 2.9%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Vogue (US) 2026: Cover Models

Vogue (US) 2026: Cover Models

K 24.6K contracts
Will Hailey Bieber be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?Yes 59%
Will Alex Consani be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?Yes 55.5%
Will Rihanna be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?Yes 54.5%
+27 moreNext deadline Jun 30, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

PM $1.86M
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes 30.5%
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes 30.5%
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes 30.5%
+20 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

PM $175.1K
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Yes 66.5%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?Yes 13.4%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Oman by December 31, 2026?Yes 4.5%
+16 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
US trade deficit for 2026?

US trade deficit for 2026?

K 15.4K contracts
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?Yes 92.5%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?Yes 4%
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?Yes 3.5%
+9 moreNext deadline May 29, 2027 UTC
KalshiEconomics
US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026

US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026

K 14.5K contracts
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 3%?Yes 93.5%
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 5%?Yes 88.5%
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 4%?Yes 88%
+8 moreNext deadline Nov 5, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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