This prediction market addresses whether the United States will authorize a military draft by the end of 2026. A draft, formally known as conscription, would involve the federal government compelling individuals to serve in the armed forces. The mechanism for this is the Selective Service System, an independent agency that maintains a registry of potential draftees. Authorization would require new legislation passed by Congress and signed by the President, as the existing legal framework only permits registration, not actual induction. The question emerges amid discussions about military recruitment challenges and potential future conflicts. Interest in this topic has increased due to public debates about the viability of an all-volunteer force, especially as the Army and other branches have struggled to meet recruiting goals. Some analysts and policymakers have questioned whether current voluntary enlistment can sustain the military's personnel needs in an era of strategic competition with nations like China and Russia. While no mainstream political leader has recently advocated for reinstating the draft, its theoretical possibility remains a subject of policy analysis and public speculation, making it a relevant topic for prediction markets.

Historical Context

The United States has employed conscription during several major conflicts. The first national draft was enacted during the Civil War under the Enrollment Act of 1863. The modern Selective Service System was created by the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940, prior to U.S. entry into World War II. Conscription continued through the Korean War and the Vietnam War. The draft became particularly controversial during the Vietnam era, with widespread protests and legal challenges. In 1973, the Nixon administration ended the draft and transitioned to an all-volunteer military. Registration for a potential draft was suspended in 1975 but reinstated in 1980 by President Jimmy Carter following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Since 1980, the U.S. has required men to register with the Selective Service within 30 days of their 18th birthday, but no one has been conscripted. The legal authority to induct personnel expired in 1973, meaning new legislation would be required to activate a draft.

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