GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Best AI at the end of 2026?

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Best AI at the end of 2026?

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7 markets tracked

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)	Kalshi	59%
Best AI in Dec 2026? (ChatGPT)	Kalshi	17%
Best AI in Dec 2026? (Gemini)	Kalshi	15%
Best AI in Dec 2026? (Grok)	Kalshi	7%
Best AI in Dec 2026? (Muse Spark)	Kalshi	3%
Best AI in Dec 2026? (Ernie)	Kalshi	0%
Best AI in Dec 2026? (Qwen)	Kalshi	0%

AI Analysis

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59%

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About This Event

On Dec 31, 2026 If X has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Best AI at the end of 2026?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Dec 31, 2026

If X has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Best AI in Dec 2026? (Grok)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Best AI in Dec 2026? (ChatGPT)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Best AI in Dec 2026? (Muse Spark)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Best AI in Dec 2026? (Gemini)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Best AI in Dec 2026? (Ernie)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Best AI in Dec 2026? (Qwen)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.3¢No 40.7¢

KALSHITech

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)

If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are

KALSHI

Best AI in Dec 2026? (ChatGPT)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.3¢No 82.8¢

KALSHITech

Best AI in Dec 2026? (ChatGPT)

If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are st

KALSHI

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Gemini)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHITech

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Gemini)

If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are st

KALSHI

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Grok)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.1¢No 92.9¢

KALSHITech

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Grok)

If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still

KALSHI

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Muse Spark)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢

KALSHITech

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Muse Spark)

If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are stil

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Events (1)

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Markets (7)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (ChatGPT)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (ChatGPT)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Gemini)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Gemini)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Grok)

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Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)

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Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Claude)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (ChatGPT)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (ChatGPT)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Gemini)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Gemini)

Best AI in Dec 2026? (Grok)

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